Wednesday, April 27, 2005

Got Problems?


MAN DOWN!

It's not even May and Red Sox nation is ready to panic.

Wells - down for at least a month probably more with a foot injury. The good news is he can continue his "fitness activities" which are obviously rigorous, evidenced by his svelte physique and attention to personal hygiene.

Schilling - down for 15 days but likely at least 4 starts with an injury to his surgically repaired ankle. This injury was deemed "indirectly related" to his previous problem by the Sox training staff. What that seems to indicate is that the actual injury was healed but that the ankle was weakened due to immobilization to such an extent that repeatedly pushing off of the mound with force caused a bone bruise.

Clement - getting hit hard so far, aside from one brilliant start in Baltimore. 38 hits in 30 innings is more telling than his 3.90 ERA, he's obviously had to get himself out of a lot of trouble, that can't continue.

Arroyo - predictable. Huge problems with lefties (.306 average), ERA around 4.00, .500ish record.

Wakefield - always starts strong, the league figures out the knuckler the second time around.

Options - slim to none. John Halama (i.e. John Burkett's left handed brother from another mother) will replace Wells. Either Lenny DiNardo, Abe Alvarez, Jeremi Gonzalez or some combination of those will replace Schilling. Total major league starts between those three: 0.

But here's the point. IT'S APRIL 29th! Relax Red Sox Nation, I can't believe I'm saying this, but things are going to be fine. I'm going to talk you through a 12 step program to get you through these next few weeks, are you with me? Okay...

1. Forget about last year. The 2004 Red Sox did not have a single member of the rotation miss a start due to injury. Yes that is correct, not one. That isn't going to happen again and it wasn't going to happen even if the Sox hadn't won the World Series.

2. Derek Lowe and Pedro aren't coming back. You can call WEEI all day long and complain about how they should have signed D-Lowe in the offseason because he's "a winner" but that's not going to change anything, and guess what, he wasn't a winner last regular season with an ERA over 5.50 and a total lack of confidence. I'll never forget what he did for us in the playoffs last year but 3 wins in October is not worth 9 million a year over the next four years guaranteed. It would have been stupid, and if they had done it you same yahoos would have been calling in screaming and yelling about how Theo is so incompetent for signing such a bum the first time he lost a game. Pedro wanted out and despite the fact that he'll have a huge year this year 2 years from now we'll be thanking our lucky stars he's no longer our problem.

3. Stop talking about "mulligans" for this year's team because they won last year. This isn't last year's team, and all you're doing by offering them penance for losing this season is holding them to the impossible standard of last season. Even if they were to repeat it won't be the same so just let it go. Last year is over and no professional athletes get mulligans from real fans.

4. Have faith in the other side of the ball. This offense is stacked. Manny and Ortiz are the toughest 3-4 combination in baseball and both will be MVP candidates. Varitek is doing the opposite of most pros, he's performing at a high level as a result of his multi-year deal not in order to get it. Johnny Damon, despite his three ring circus is among the best center fielders in the game and Mark Bellhorn is one of the better offensive second basemen in the American League. If Renterria, Millar, Nixon, and Mueller put up solid numbers the Sox will be in the top 3 in the AL in runs, home runs, and slugging.

5. Believe in the brass. John Henry and the ownership group understand the balance between fiscal responsibility and the need to win. If this season starts to look shaky, especially on the mound they will authorize Theo to make moves to fix it.

6. Remember that, "In Theo we trust." Of course we don't trust him like we trust Belichick, but that is a pantheon with only one resident. He may have been ineffective this offseason but it is hardly his fault. He couldn't bring back Lowe or Pedro, monetarily or otherwise. Pavano wanted to go to New York because he was raised a Yankee fan, Johnson didn't want to come here, and Washburn really isn't that good. Clement is struggling but in many respects he was the best available option at the time.

7. Where you are in April is not indicative of where you'll be in September. Despite the Orioles' hot start they do not have the arms to stay in it for the long haul. They are going to score a ton of runs but they won't be able to stop anyone after the All Star break and will fade. Unfortunately, the same can be said for the Yankees...

8. The only race that matters is with the Yankees. We're still a few games ahead of them and their pitching, while healthier is just as shaky as the Red Sox. It remains to be seen what will happen over the laung haul. Johnson is old, Pavano is nervous in New York, and like I said Washburn just isn't that good.

9. The bullpen. Keith Foulke will get it together and provide huge innings and Timlin will be solid as always. Embree is a question because his fastball is still straight as an arrow and now it's at 94 not 97, could be problematic but if he gets his velocity back he'll be fine. Myers is a crucial ace against lefties.

10. The Devil Rays. The Sox still get to play the worst team in the American League over a dozen times. Those are 8 guaranteed wins, maybe 10 or 11, throw in a cool dozen more against the Blue Jays who are sure to fall apart and playing in the AL East no longer looks so bad. This of course doesn't help against the Yankees but it does help for...

11. The Wild Card. Do we need to remind anyone that just getting into the playoffs in baseball is all that counts? Looking around the league, even if the Sox manage to lose the East there are precious few teams that will challenge for the Wild Card. The White Sox will likely cool off and the AL West is unlikely to produce anything beyond the Angels. The A's will not be the same without the "Big 3".

12. We're still Red Sox fans. Everyone outside of New England thought that a World Championship would mellow us, turn us into Brewers fans with a different accent. Now we're less than a month into the season and it's panic time and yahoo nation is riding high. Did you miss it? I thought so. The best part? We get to panic, act paranoid, irrationally whine and yet you never have to hear "1918!" ever again. How annoying are we now?

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

My feeling is that Shilling is done for the year (if not his career). Francona said there was a chance he could "break his own ankle from the force of pitching." Ouch. That not good. I'd start worrying....now.