Monday, January 30, 2006

Whiner Line - An Impending Golden Age

Never have callers to Boston Sports Radio WEEI's "Whiner Line" been so excited. In the last week 2 Boston franchises have given them more rhythmic fodder than has existed in New England sports since everyone started saying Nomahh!

First Coco Crisp. Do I even need to explain this?
"Coco Crisp? More like Fruity Pebbles. You suck!"
"Not looking too Crisp out there today Coco! Should we call Count Chocula to come help you? You suck!"
"Coco! You're making me loco! You suck!"

It doesn't actually matter how well Coco plays overall. If he starts slow, goes into a slump of any kind, or God forbid pulls a Jose Offerman on us the Yahoos will be licking their chops and busting out their dictionaries looking for words that rhyme with Coco and Crisp, and in their spare time they'll scanning grocery store aisles for more cereal puns. I wonder if he has any idea what he's in for, or if anyone in the Red Sox front office will talk to him about it. Maybe that will be Ben and Jed's new job.

"Listen, Coco, ahh we know you're a good player and we think you'll do really well here but there's just this one thing."
"Yeah?"
"Yeah...um..this town tends to take on a certain...lyrical tone to their ranting and raving if your name is predisposed to such activity if you know what I mean."
"Huh?"
"Well, you know how your name kind of reminds some people, not us of course, but some people, of a cereal...hey listen just never turn on AM radio. That's all we're saying, go get 'em Captain Crunch!"

This situation will not be helped in any way by the fact that Coco is coming in on the heels of Johnny Damon the best Red Sox leadoff hitter of my lifetime (and fans crucified even him at the beginning of last season). Coco's a good player but the deck is marginally stacked against him. In the chaos that followed the Theo mess, Damon's departure, and the failure to sign a single quality free-agent Coco's name became the end-all-be-all of this offseason. All of the fan's attention has been paid to his acquisition as Damon's replacement and as the cornerstone of this offseason. That seems like a lot of pressure to put on .287 career hitter who's more of a speed and complimentary player than an offensive stronghold. It will take a career year from the cereal king to stay out of the collective dog house.

Next, we move to the Celtics and their recent additions, Michael Olowokandi and Wally Szczerbiak. (I am really glad I don't write much about the Celtics, I have no interest in typing those names twice a week.) Luckily for Olowokandi he stinks so badly, (come on the Timberwolves looked at Marc Blount as an upgrade compared to him) that he will rarely see more than the 4 minutes of playing time he got tonight. When Blount (and his nightmarish contract) is considered a trade-worthy commodity in comparison to your inability well...that is a white-glove-across-the-face insult if ever one has existed. I read an e-mail from a Wolves fan when the trade was made that said, "You have never seen a stiff like Olowokandi, Shawn Bradley was twice the player and more athletic than this kid." Ouch. His lack of playing time will save him from the following, or worse...

"Hey Michael! The last time I saw someone with the name Kandi suck that much I woke up outside Reno with an empty wallet! You suck!"

Wally Szczerbiak will be a greater challenge to the collective creativity of the Boston masses. First, he averages about 20 points per game which is not at all shabby and is certainly not begging for criticism. Second, the words vacuum and orange are easier to rhyme and lyricize (not a word I know) than Szczerbiak. Rather than his last name, Wally's probably going to get it for his rather wimpish surname. Unfortunately for him, he shares the title with another Boston figure often considered light in the loafers, Wally the Green Monster, the Red Sox mascot who has been launched to fame by Jerry Remy. The Sox Wally has often been known to sit upside down in his chair in the booth with Don Orsillo and Remy when the Sox are on a losing streak for a change in luck. If Szczerbiak's not playing well in April...

"Hey Wally, this is Theo Epstein calling. We were wondering if you would consider coming back to work for us full time...at the request of the Celtics and their fans. The city as a whole thinks you fit in a little better here wearing a giant green head. Sorry is mats down your hair. Call me...or Ben and Jed, cause you know they're still really important too...I swear. You suck!"

All this great material and 2/3 of it is mired on a team that no one cares about and the other third doesn't take the field for 2 months. Well, looks like its more Theo jokes on the Big Show, between their 38 minute commercial breaks.

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One other quick note, I heard today that Bill Belichick is going to be on the Super Bowl pre-game show. When asked about the decision to take the gig Belichick said (I'm paraphrasing) that it would be a great opportunity to see the Super Bowl from another perspective.

Isn't that classic Belichick speak? He basically just said that he doesn't understand the Super Bowl from the perspective of a non-participant because the Patriots are have been in it so frequently but because of his monotone people pass it off as a serious comment regarding his lack of knowledge on how the game is covered. Do you think he has missed a second of Super Bowl coverage in his 50-odd years of life? Not likely, I imagine he has a pretty firm grasp of the game from all angles. That was a dig that is getting no credit and might actually be the funniest thing 'Ol Stonewall has ever said in the media.

I personally can't wait for this. It's going to be some of the most awkward comedy in the history of sports coverage. I don't know who ABC is using for their pre-game show, I would imagine it's the ESPN guys give or take a few since they both fall under the Disney umbrella. Just picture this, Michael Irvin asks Belichick something in incomprehensible Irvin-ese and Belichick just looks at him, like he looks at reporters who ask about injured Patriots and says, "No," to whatever the question is. Then the camera stays on him for 10 seconds waiting for more (because it's a pre-game show and you have to say more...right?) until Chris Berman stops pointing and giggling at Irvin and saves us all from interminable dead air. Set your TiVo's now, it's going to be great.

"Coach, you think Ben Roethlisberger will feel the pressure tonight?"
"No."

Wednesday, January 25, 2006

Phatt Boys, Theo, Coco, Look Alikes, and BC Vehicles

Oh what a busy 24 hours it’s been.

First, the bad news. My place of employment, the funding source that keeps the lights on in B-Slant land went out of business. Phatt Boys, Harvard Square closed its doors on Monday night permanently after a staring contest between the Phatt Fellas Scott and Fred and the property owner at 50 Church Street ended in a mutual door slamming and curse uttering cessation of business. After a few declarations of bankruptcy (by the phatt owners), unemployment (by the B-Slant) and a necessary change in "phattitude" by everyone involved the future of at least one man is highly in doubt. My feelings on this situation are a bit negative, seeing as a few pay checks owed to me have now bounced, which has in a financial sense ruined me, but my anger is somewhat tempered by the fact that the dream of two restaurant entrepreneurs is now effectively dead. A bad location, an unwillingness to concede to the collegiate surroundings, and a suburban concept killed the Phatt Boys. Regardless, they're good guys and I wish them both the best in future.

As for the B-Slant and his future employment...who knows? I'm obviously searching (feverishly) for another job since I had exactly 0 hours notice on the impending closure of Phatt Boys but leads are scarce and job openings in January are rarer than 65 degree days. If anyone is hiring, or is aware of any hiring going on anywhere please let me know. It's sad times in the checking account right now and any potential assistance would be fantastic.

Anyway, onto happier matters. Well maybe. Theo is back in his old office, as General Manager of the Red Sox. So I guess that settles the little power struggle that was set to take place at the top the Sox front office. Instead of that Ben and Jed get the boot and Theo gets all the power again. What exactly was the point of his resignation again?

Don't be fooled by the idea that all is well in Red Sox nation. Even in their press release yesterday there were blatant inconsistencies between the top dogs, including John Henry declaring that there was never a dispute in the office between Lucchino and Epstein while both parties involved acknowledged that there was and that it had been settled. Further proof that John Henry has exactly no clue what goes on in the offices below him, or he just doesn't care.

On the positive however, the Sox deal with the Indians for Coco Crisp fell apart because Guillermo Mota failed his physical with the Indians. This is actually comical. The Red Sox demanded that the Marlins throw Mota into the deal for Josh Beckett because they were worried about the health of Beckett's shoulder, now it turns out that the insurance policy that the Sox took out against Beckett's health can't pass a physical. Gee whiz guys you really nailed this one, thanks Ben and Jed. Do you think when the Red Sox proposed this deal the Marlins execs were saying to each other:

"Hey Billy, they want us to throw in Mota because they're worried about Beckett's shoulder."

"Mota, he won't even pass a physical, they'll never go for that."


"Sure they will, that Epstein kid is gone, they've gone the ice cream guys running things up there now."

"Really? See if they'll take our Kirby Puckett rookie cards for the Ted Williams seat in right field."

Maybe Babe Ruth is down there in hell saying, "See I told you I could still curse them, I was just too wasted in 2004." RobNeyer thinks that there are just too many cooks in the Sox kitchen. I say there just isn't enough talent left out there to bolster a mediocre lineup that got left in the wake of the aggressive Blue Jays and Mets (wait who?).

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I was watching Inside the NFL tonight on HBO and they did a long piece on Shaun Alexander. While the majority of the story was about his exceptional season and his MVP award they veered wildly off to the side for 5 minutes or so to cover his resemblance to Tike Barber. Normally I would find this annoying and useless but these two guys look exactly alike. Alexander is the third Barber brother that Mrs. Barber decided to give up because she didn't want to raise 3 kids, there is no other explanation. Maybe if either of them decided to grow a little hair at some point I could be convinced otherwise this seems like a genetic slam dunk. Someone get me a paternity test please. This had to have been Mrs. Barber's worst nightmare, the third child that she threw in the dumpster outside the hospital coming back to get famous in the same field as her two "wanted" children. Further proof of my theory, don't have triplets and try to throw one away for fear that all three might someday be famous.

Speaking of look alikes, do you think Ken Whisenhunt got the job as the Steelers offensive coordinator as a part of a child support settlement with a woman Bill Cowher illegitimately impregnated? He has the chin and the receding hairline, minus the slightly wild "prison" eyes that Cowher displays. Good thing for Cowher Whisenhunt ended up knowing something about football huh? It would have been really embarrassing if his little sexual "oops" ended up coordinating the Steelers offense with a primary knowledge of the Boston Ballet choreography and an understanding of the 3:4 in terms of his chances to score at The Golden Banana on a Friday night.

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And finally, the story that BC grads and fans all over the country are priding themselves on today. The bus carrying the BC men's basketball team in Chapel Hill, North Carolina struck and killed a cyclist last night. Yeah....sooo... you have to figure someone lost their job over that one right?

I know the bus company that BC uses is Coach USA, and since I played 4 years of a varsity sport at the Heights I have plenty of experience with the company and their services. Generally they were fine, except for the one trip back from the University of Maine upon which the bus driver fell asleep at the wheel several times and on one occasion hit a guardrail injuring the hand of one of my teammates who was standing in the bathroom of the bus at the time. The bus never stopped. Maybe it wasn't the same company, but that's my story.

Anyway, BC beat number 25 North Carolina tonight for their first legitimate ACC win of the season. Craig Smith actually pulled a reversal of his usual performance, scoring 14 of his 16 points in the second half (still an All-American would not be held to 2 first half points) and Jared Dudley added 17 points and 8 rebounds. It's a nice win for BC, especially given that they needed a road win in conference to offset their crushing home loss to NC State who looks to be better than advertised. With the win BC has pulled back to .500 in the conference, which is probably about where they belong. Maybe it takes the occasional vehicular homicide to get a road win in the ACC...Okay that's just wrong I'm sorry.

Maybe I'll change this to a job search blog...

Tuesday, January 24, 2006

A Million Little Pieces - The Truth Will Set You Free

Why do I always feel like I come to these debates just a little bit too late? Is there anything left to say about this topic? If I defend James Frey am I just leaping to the opposite side of the popular opinion and if I trash him am I simply following the herd? I don't know.

That's not all I don't know. I also don't know what to think about Mr. James Frey and his burgeoning literary empire which may or may not have been based on a foundation of lies and manipulation. I don't know if his book is true, false, or somewhere in between and sadly I never will.

I read A Million Little Pieces over the course of the last week and was riveted. The story is gripping, horrifying, emotional, and exhausting. For those of you who have been living under a rock for the last month AMLP (as it has become known in literary discussions all over the internet) is James Frey's allegedly factual account of six weeks spent in an exclusive rehabilitation clinic in Minnesota. He comes to the clinic after waking up on a commercial flight covered in various bodily fluids and missing four teeth. After detoxification (and a frightening dental experience) he enters a "treatment" program that he wildly disregards and spurns until ultimately he recovers from his addictions through sheer force of will. At the end of the story he goes to a bar, orders a pint glass filled to the brim with liquor, stares at it and argues with his personalized inner demon known as "The Fury" and then orders it thrown down the drain. Victory! In a presumed (by the fact that he said so) epilogue he heads to Ohio to serve three to six months in prison for a crack and alcohol induced melee that took place while he was in college.

If you read the book and believed it to be true you were unable to put it down. Yes, it is horribly written in a repetitive and overly detailed style which lacks flow and punctuation. But it is written in such a personalized way that it cuts through its own stylistic shortcomings and hits a nerve within readers (at least this one). It's almost as though you are reading the inner monologue of someone whose psyche is so twisted that you would wish for a comatose existence rather than trade places with it.

When he describes having a double root canal surgery without the aid of any anethesia or pain killers it's as cringe inducing as a piece of literature can be, because you can't imagine someone actually going through it.

But what if he didn't?

Apparently Mr. Frey was a little bit liberal with his depictions of his criminal past. In a detailed report by the SmokingGun they reveal major discrepencies in his claims, including basic facts that indicate he was never incarcerated and that all of his legal run-ins were nothing more than traffic related incidents involving intoxication. After the report and the considerable backlash that came with it Frey admitted that he made up some of his legal accounts, but maintains that the rest of the book is true. Others, like Frey's biggest detractor to date JamesDolan, an expatriate literary critic who seems to HATE AMLP and its author with an unreasonable amount of scorn, suggest that Frey's lies regarding his legal troubles more than likely point to large portions of the book being fiction. Dolan's claim is based mostly on his own feeling that the story cleans up too nicely and is too succinctly Hollywood. That will never be proven.

Oprah Winfrey, who launched Frey's book to national acclaim by giving it her "Mid-western Woman Seal of Approval" (a.k.a. putting it in her book club) has stood by the author despite the allegations of faslehoods within the memoir. She even called in to Larry King while he was interviewing Frey regarding the scandal and said that the book still "resonates" for her.

AMLP has been widely credited as an inspirational work for those struggling with addictions and the trials of staying sober. It has been particularly influential to those who have failed to find sobriety with the 12 Steps and Alcoholics Anonymous, as Frey strongly rejects the cultist (and other) aspects of the program throughout his book and instead credits his recovery to sheer strength of will.

So here we are, like I said before, with those who are offended by the fact that Frey would present his work as a memoir and then include embellished or outright false information on one side, led by Dolan; and on the other side we have Oprah, the fans, the addicts, and those who find Frey's tale entertaining and valuable regardless. And in between is the lowly B-Slant, neither literary critic nor drug addict. What's a normal guy to think?

When I first heard that AMLP was at least in part fake my first thought was, "Who cares, it's still a pretty good read." From what I had heard it was just the legal stuff that was being called into question and that there is no doubt that he was profoundly addicted to the worst substances on the planet and that the overall message of the book was untarnished. Then I read the Smoking Gun piece that outlines not only Frey's legal inconsitencies but another terribly bothersome incident that if falsified and untrue is downright wrong. At several times throughout the narrative Frey speaks to a dead girl who allegedly befriended him when he first moved to the upper-middle class "hellhole" (his word) in Michigan where his life began to slowly come unglued. He claims that at the age of 12 on the night that the girl was killed she used a movie date with him in order to get out of the house and away from her parents so she could go on a date with an older boy. Subsequently the girl was killed in a car crash as the boy tried to beat a train across some tracks after spending time at a parking area drinking beer, the driver was uninjured. In the aftermath Frey was held responsible by the town that never accepted him, and was even questioned by police in the incident.

According to the Smoking Gun none of that ever happened. There was a car crash in the town that Frey went to high school in but the girls in question (yes there were two) were both 17, not 12 and the driver was critically injured though he did survive. According to the police officers invovled they never questioned Frey about the incident and none of them recognized his name. The Smoking Gun was unable to find any other train accidents involving cars and teenage girls in that vicinity that matched Frey's descrpition of events. Also the parents of the girl Frey claimed to have a relationship with were unable to verify that the two were friends, although they could not say for certain that they were not.

IF what the Smoking Gun is claiming is true then Frey has lost all credibility with me. Not only did he embellish his criminal exploits for dramatic effect but he wrote himself into a tragic tale in which he had no involvement and used it to make his story more compelling. That is morally wrong, commercially manipulative, and devoid of all sensitivity to the families involved. But since I don't know for sure if he did that I'll pass over my harshest judgements for the moment.

Here's the point, he definitely lied about his legal record to make his story more dramatic. His legal record is the only aspect of his story that would leave an obvious paper trail. This sets off alarm bells in my head. We can prove that part of the story is false and he can't prove that any of the rest of it is true so why are we supposed to believe that his only duplicitous storytelling took place in the sections most conveniently disproven? The majority of his friends from inside the clinic are said to be dead in the post-script and none have come forward to defend his claims. If he formed life long bonds over mutal healing inside this clinic (which he does claim over and over again) why have none of his counterparts come to his rescue and said, "Yeah that's pretty much how I remember it." Where are they? They can't all be dead, if they actually existed.

I can't help myself, I have to assume that much of what I presumed to be real in the story is false, and until he proves beyond his word (which isn't worth much right now) that he was telling the truth that's how I'm going to look at it. Having been an epic liar myself it seems unlikely to me that only one segment of the story would be dramatized for effect. Once you get rolling on the lies it becomes difficult to stop and in all likelihood the millions of us who were entraptured by AMLP were taken in by a fictional tale based loosely on fact.

Now the question is does it matter? Surely something is lost when we realize that he was duping us all along, but is this emotional roller coaster totally devoid of value now that it's been proven to be partially fictionalized? I don't think you can say that. I really like the James Frey that exists in AMLP. He is strong and willful and makes no excuses for his mistakes. He looks at addicton and says that it's a choice, which I agree with, and he says that he is no longer going to make the wrong choice. He doesn't rely on books, or support groups, or anyone named Bill W. to heal him, he heals himself. Too bad that James Frey probably doesn't exist because he would be a great role model to addicts everywhere who fail to find salvation in a higher power and circle jerks. Is that inspirational character stripped of his message now that we have discovered that he exists only on paper? Maybe. It certainly is much harder to think, "Hey, he did it, so can I," in regards to a fictional character than it is to feel a kinship with someone you can literally see and hear.

The saddest and most troubling part of this scandal is that all of the good that has come from this tale may be erradicated because we will never fully trust the "facts". If Frey was actually addicted to crack, cocaine, alcohol, glue, and gasoline and he actually did wake up on an airplane missing four teeth, and he actually did have a double root canal with no anesthesia then the story still has merit. If he lied about being the toughest guy to hit the "Unit" since Leonard the gangster so what? What are we learning from this story, how to use an Adam's apple pressure point or how to beat addiction? If he lied about finding love in rehab despite all the rules that forbade it should we hang him for it? He tried to make his book more palatable to conservative women.

The problem down the line will be that we will never be able to separate fact from fiction in Frey's tale. He will never come out and say that points A, B, and C are true but points D, E, F are false. If he did that he might lose some readers to the initial backlash but if the fundamental rehabilitation story is accurate and his own inner demons actually existed then the peripheral story filler does not rob AMLP of value entirely, especially to those who have found help with their own addictions within its pages. We as readers need to know that the meat of the story is true. If it's not then throw the book away. It's horrific "inner monologue" writing style can only be tolerated if the monologue is at its base true. But since we'll never know for sure we can only read it and accept it for what it is, a questionable piece of literature whose ultimate value will be mired in questions to which we will never have answers.

And oh yeah, if he lied about that train accident, send Frey on the slow boat to hell because he's lost me.

Monday, January 23, 2006

Total Reversal

Hey Theo, next time you want a vacation just ask for one. Surely you can afford to take a trip somewhere.

It's official I have no idea what is going on in Red Sox nation right now, and it seems to me that the dukes and dutchesses of the land don't have a clue either.

First Theo is staying, then there are irreconcilable differences, then he's leaving, then he is hanging around the offices and maybe "talking baseball" with Ben and Jed, but then he might be the Dodgers GM, then the entire Red Sox '04 World Series team signs with other teams in the AL East, and now just as it's too late to make anything of this offseason Theo is back. Huh?

So let me get this straight. Theo could not possibly work for another second under Larry Lucchino when the hot stove was burning brightly but now that every available piece of talent including our own centerfielder has signed with another team the protege and the mentor have reconciled. This is more than a little convenient Theo, a lot more than a little.

I feel a little used and betrayed by all this. When Epstein resigned on Halloween I came out and just blasted the Red Sox as an organization, a business, and a conglomerate with the Boston Globe. I attacked Larry Lucchino's character (which I stand by) and martyred poor Theo who I thought was clearly the victim of political wrangling. Now I found out that it was I who was politcally wrangled, along with Red Sox fans everywhere by a politician of equal measure to Lucchino, Epstein himself.

The return of the prodigal son creates a slew of new problems for the Red Sox and their baseball operations. According to official reports Theo is not the general manager, that title remains jointly with Ben and Jed. So what is he and more importantly how will it be possible for the co-GMs to function effectively if their predecesor who just happened to bring a rabid fan base their first championship in 9 decades is sitting in the wings looking over their shoulders? My understanding of the circumstances that led to Epstein's initial departure includes a power structure that was overly crowded at the top. Now we have added two more powerful baseball men to that structure and things are somehow supposed to be better. That just does not make a bit of sense.

Not to mention the practical applications of this new set-up. If I'm another GM anywhere in baseball I'm wondering who is going to answer the phone on Yawkey Way if I call to propose a deal, and I also wonder if a certain professional continuity will be lost in the shuffle of speaking to at least 3, maybe 4 people. Also if a deal is made who takes the credit, who takes the blame? If Andy Marte turns into Jeff Bagwell who will hisotry declare the idiot for trading him?

Speaking of Marte, it seems that the Sox front office as crowded as it may be had no trouble pulling a deal for Coco Crisp and a minor leaguer. I just have one question for whoever made this trade and for fans, would you have traded Edgar Renterria for Coco Crisp straight up? Because that's what just happened. Forget Mota, Riske, and Bard, whoever they are, would Rent-a-Wreck for Crisp be a deal you would have made?

Ask yourself the same question again, but this time imagine that they still had Johnny Damon.

Let's hope this over-crowded ship can stay above water for a little while this season. At least they don't have a shortstop weighing it down...

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Other Stuff:

- What is the bigger story from Sunday: the Steelers and Seahawks advance to the Super Bowl or Kobe going for 81?

81 points just simply isn't human. 2 teams advance to the Super Bowl every year, only one player has ever scored more than Bryant did last night. (Of course I would be singing a very different tune if it were my Patriots that were doing the advancing.) Kobe's achievements will go down in history as one of the greatest individual sports perfomances ever, the Steelers and Seahawks will have to be on hell of a game to even become historical in any sense. My vote goes to Kobe.

- I simply could not have been more wrong about the way the Championship games played out yesterday. I don't even have an excuse, there were no crippling injuries on the teams I picked, there were no extenuating weather factors. I was just plain wrong. One statment I made stands out as particularly dumb in hindsight, my prediction that Ben Roethlisberger would struggle mightily against the Denver blitz simply because Tom Brady had some trouble the previous week. Big Ben played an absolutely brilliant game and is building a nice little reputation as a solid big game quarterback. He was accurate, composed, and clutch, and made me look like an idiot. Nice game Ben, thanks for nothing.

- The winter olympics are coming up. Could there be less fanfare about this. There was more attention paid to the PBA skills challenge on ESPN yesterday afternoon than is being paid to Torino. The summer olympics captivate the world, the winter olympics barely get headlines. Why is that? I know why I love the summer games more, the presence of my sport swimming. What's everyone elses excuse? My speculation is too much figure skating, men in leotards revolt me too.

- UConn is the latest winner of the "Everyone Else Lost So We Jump Up" college basketball sweepstakes. With the 3 unbeatens going down on the same the day the Huskies find themselves on top of the polls this week. Too bad they don't deserve it. Duke will be back there after the just annihilate ACC competition the rest of the way. BC is at 18 and 20 in the two polls respectively. That seems about right for them and will probably be where they will stay for the remainder of the season.

- I'm going to write a longer piece on this probably tomorrow, but there is a battle shaping up about James Frey and his book A Million Little Pieces. On one side there is the SmokingGun and it's article stating that much of Frey's account of 6 weeks in rehab is falsified, especially his criminal missteps, JamesDolan a literary critic who presumed Frey's work was false over 2 years ago and is on a crusade against him, and many others who claim that he cheated readers by claiming his work was factual. On the other side is Frey who claims the majority of his account is true despite the lack of a legal paper trail, Oprah Winfrey who launched Frey's work to stardom by placing in her book club and who stands by the author, and many recovering addicts who look to the book as an inspirational life raft. Check out the two links above, they're very interesting if you've read the book. I don't know where I stand on this yet, I'll take a side of the fence in my piece tomorrow.

Sunday, January 22, 2006

Yeah...well...okay then...
Well looks like I really nailed my prediction on that first game, now if Seattle smokes Carolina by 30 things will go just about as expected.

Friday, January 20, 2006

Championship Weekend

Question: How do you get 12 network executives to have a simultaneous heart attack?

Answer: Suggest a AFC/NFC Championship weekend which takes place entirely outside of the eastern and central time zones.

No New York, no Boston, no Florida, no Indianapolis, no Chicago, no Twin Cities. When your biggest market is Pittsburgh, well that's just begging for the "terrible" towels.

Regardless, it's still a big weekend, so here are my predictions, followed by the predictions of the man who taught me about sports, verbatum from his own words. Neither of us take any responsibility if you lose any money on it, we suck at gambling too.

Pittsburgh at Denver: I think I just invented a general rule here: if your defense can confuse, befuddle, and force mistakes from Tom Brady you are going to be in pretty good shape against every 2nd year quarterback in the history of football. I don't see how a defense can make the best QB in the NFL look somewhat confused one week and not have at least the same and probably a worse effect on Ben Roethlisberger the following week. Furthermore, no 6 seed has ever made it to the championship game before this year for a reason. Winning 2 games on the road in the playoffs is hard enough, winning 3 is damn near impossible. I think that Pittsburgh has a chance to win with a similar game plan to last week (get a lead, pray) but I don't think they will. Last week's game against Indy was their Super Bowl, now they're playing with house money. The last team that was playing with house money in Denver went home on the wrong end of a 27-13 decision. Also, Jerome Bettis is going to be trying so hard to hold on to the ball that he'll just fall down before anyone touches him to avoid fumbling, which might actually be good for Pittsburgh since he is just a horrible big game back. Pick: Denver by 5.

Carolina at Seattle: 2 regular season games against each of the following: San Francisco, Arizona, and St. Louis. No team in the NFL has 6 wins as gift wrapped each season as the Seattle Seahawks. Any other questions about why they had not won a playoff game prior to last weeks victory over Washington since 1984? While Carolina is looking to do the impossible, win 3 road playoff games en-route to the Super Bowl Seattle is looking to defy logic by coming out of the NFC West to win anything. I just can't see it. Shaun Alexander's health is in question and while Matt Hasselbeck played great last week his numbers on the season are padded by weak competition (1 300 yard passing game on the season against St. Louis, 4 total games against playoff teams). We saw last week what Carolina did to a highly touted team at home who had not played anyone all year long. I see nothing standing in the way of a repeat. Steve Smith won't go off like he did against the ridiculously overrated Bears (and my God if he does Mike Holmgren should be taken out on into the Seattle rain and drowned in it) because EVERYONE knows where the Panthers want to go with the ball and Seattle should focus all of their efforts on preventing it. But all the attention that will be paid to Smith will open up the field for the rest of the offense, led by a highly underrated (yes I know I've often written about him as overrated but his numbers in the post season don't lie) Jake Delhomme. Carolina won't run away with it, but their defense will look like the morgul hordes compared to the cup-cake show the Seahawks faced last week and the birds will wilt on their own damp home field. Pick: Carolina by 3.

Now the second opinion from Mr. Boston Slant Sr., as copied and pasted from an e-mail to me.

MY PREDICTIONS: Call your bookie, go to Vegas... Pittsburgh and Carolina. It seems strange to pick two visiting teams but what the heck. (By the way, now that you know my picks I did not mean you should call your bookie and bet on Denver and Seatle, although I would understand!)

There you have it, the family B-Slant agrees on the NFC game and is divided on the AFC, which means that for the first time ever at least one of us will be right. However, the world will not come to a cataclysmic end this weekend as there is no chance of us both being right which would clearly signal the end of days. Fear not the apocalypse is delayed until at least the Super Bowl.

Wednesday, January 18, 2006

What Now?

To try, at this point to put the recent run of New England sports dominance in perspective is difficult. History widens perspective and as such what is right before us becomes clearer as time goes on. It takes time to decide that eras have come and gone and even more time to determine where they belong in history. Right now we can only compare what we have recently seen with past runs that compare with it, i.e. the Steelers, Cowboys, and 49ers that all won 2 consecutive Super Bowls. We have no idea what will come from the Patriots in the immediate future, and similarly no idea what great dynasties will upstage them further down the road.

A region has rarely seen such a peak period in sports. Two franchises in New England have turned the mindset and the expectations of a rabid sports town on its head. Remember just 5 years ago the Patriots had never won a Super Bowl, the name Tom Brady hardly meant anything to us, the Red Sox were mired in the midst of an 80+ year losing streak, and a playoff berth in either sport was exciting enough. Then one team, one coach, one kick changed it all.

When Adam Vinatieri's 48 yard field goal clinched Super Bowl XXXVI for the Patriots and a shocked and overjoyed fan base, life as we knew it ceased to exist. Winning was expected now, and losing felt not only painful but wrong. 4 years later things have only escalated.

Following the Red Sox curse-breaking championship in 2004 Boston had captured an elusive holy sporting grail, 2 major championships residing in 1 city at the same time. We as fans were on top of the world. Neither our Red Sox or Patriots had been eliminated from a season in what seemed like forever, and the Patriots perpetuated our run into 2005 winning again in last year's Super Bowl. From the Patriots victory in Super Bowl XXXVIII to the Red Sox elimination in October of 2005 Sox and Pats fans celebrated 3 championships and 0 eliminations in 613 days. It simply does not get better than that, as we have learned. On the 614th day the eventual World Champion White Sox eliminated the Red Sox from the ALDS, 3 months and a week later the Broncos paid the Patriots the same discourtesy.

So here we are with our rear view mirrors strapped firmly to our foreheads, hoping to obscure our vision of the frightening future. I think that it's safe, at least at this point to say that the Red Sox run is over. They have made the playoffs, which is by no means a small feat in baseball, in 3 consecutive seasons with essentially a core group of players. That core is gone now, as is the man who assembled them (at least as far as we know). The rest of the division has gotten better as the Red Sox have (not entirely by their own doing) gotten worse. While they have not slid down the entire slippery slope of the mountain it took them nearly 9 decades to climb, they have clearly descended a little. That slight decension will likely delay the next Duck Boat ride for John Henry and his staff through the streets of Boston at least long enough for the team's makeup to change sufficiently so that it will no longer be recognizable as the team that enjoyed the tour in 2004.

The Patriots on the other hand are a different story. They could be back again next year. There are no Johnny Damon's heading out of town on this team, and Scott Pioli is not packing his bags after a power struggle with Bob Kraft. Tom Brady is not demanding to be traded and free agents are not avoiding the organization like the plague. 4 out of 6 Super Bowl victories has never been done, but it is not out of the question and is probably more likely than 3 in a row ever was. We saw this year what chance can do to a team in terms of injury and we saw how hard it is to avoid that cold grasp of chance for 3 straight years. But unlike the Red Sox the core that brought the first 3 Patriots banners home remains in Foxboro and like we always say around here when you have Brady and Belichick you always have a chance. Are the odds good that they will win the Super Bowl again next season? No. The division has vastly improved, especially the Miami Dolphins under Belichick disciple Nick Saban. Another Bill underling will no doubt right the ship in New York at least somewhat, although the problems there will take a bit longer to correct given their very limited talent offensively. And the longer a team plays with the same system the more likely it is that teams will find a way to beat it. The Patriots have been using simple deception to win for half a decade, but a formula may slowly be developing (out of Denver) on how to beat them. But there is still a chance of a return to glory.

While I am not willing to call an end to the era of dominance by the Patriots I think it is important to put into perspective what they have done. It's an over used cliche to blame the absence of dynasties on the free agency era, but as most cliches do it originates from some factual basis. The contract structure of the NFL is set up to create parody, not dominance. Ideally, by the terms of the present CBA each team comes into any given season with the same financial opportunity to win, what they do with it is another story. Given that fact what the Patriots have accomplished is even more amazing. They are not given any greater tools than the other 31 teams in the NFL; they have merely made the best use of them. Their dominance is due to an effective use of available resources not an overabundance of them in comparison to other teams.

The New York Yankees of the late 1990s used the opposite model; they bought and sold their championships. In baseball you can do that, in football you can't. New England has become the model franchise because they have combined great coaching and great personnel management with great talent. For the past 5 years they have gotten water from the perverbial stone while the rest of the league has managed to only create dust.

Of course you need incredible personalities to build what they Patriots have build, and frankly in most places it wouldn't work. A Tom Brady with a bigger ego and hungrier checking account could have brought this franchise to its knees and stopped the dominance on several occasions. Fortunately he is not of the T.O. mold and offered to structure his contract so that the team would be ensured of the ability to field a competitive team under the salary cap each season. Not many professional athletes look at it that way, each Patriot is required to (at least in some measure) or they are shown their walking papers (Ty Law, Lawyer Milloy). It sounds vapid to talk about playing for the name on the front of the jersey rather than the name on the back, but that's what happens when players put on the Patriots uniform.

This team first mentality seems to weed out some of the stat and contract oriented players from the Patriots roster and replaces them with players who genuinely want to win. Take Corey Dillon for example. He was mired in mediocrity (and that is being kind) in Cincinnati for the better part of his career. After growing sick of it he talked his was out of town with a reputation as a locker room cancer. Then he took less money and followed Brady's contract structure in order to have a shot at a ring with the Pats. He was not a guy that was sick of being underpaid and underappreciated, he was sick of losing. If you want the huge amount of 0's after your name, go to Oakland; if you want a ring on your finger come to New England. It's been that simple. It's a remarkably simple philosophy, yet one that is so terribly difficult to implement in today's sporting landscape. In order to convince those who want to win that the Patriots had what it took to win they had to accomplish something out of nearly nothing. The credit for that goes to Belichick and Pioli. Before they were able to bring players here (and what veteran does not want to play here now?) they had to take a team that had no shot at a title and win one anyway. Credibility to your system comes with success, not successful thinking. Credbility to the Pats came to them on the foot of Adam Vinatieri almost 6 years ago.

Walking off the field Belichick was quoted as saying (yelling) to an assistant, "Can you believe we won the fucking Super Bowl with this team?"

He knew that by all rights they should not have won it, but they did and what followed after was a direct result of that heroic effort.

But nothing lasts forever. The reality of the game is starting to set in on the Patriots and the financial realities are starting to catch up with even them. You see the nice little scenario I drew up back there only works if everyone is on board with it, including the super stars. While Tom Brady has the humilty of a man who knows what it's like to be an underdog other stars on this roster do not necessarily share that trait. Richard Seymour held out from camp this season, and while he eventually played and starred yet again on the football field his contract dispute showed that even the greatest and most team minded organization has to be congnicent of star power. Some players can be replaced and spotted for, Seymour is not one of them. As players continue to flourish in this system their star power will become evident and the Pats will have to make some tough choices concerning their futures. Eventually some will be let go to protect the integrity of the team, but that will take its toll. The long term effect however will be to keep the mindset of the players who are here on the team aspect of the game. While greatness can never truly be replaced it can be augmented and as we have learned in New England it can be created out of unlikely candidates. They won't win every year, and the tenure of this regime will eventually end but as long as the philosophy remains the same they will continue to head in the right direction, regardless of where they are forced to start from.

Purely from a fan's perspective this recent run of greatness has been sporting validation. For a few years we were immune to the insecurities of being a fan. We did not have to worry about whether or not our team would win, we merely wondered how they would pull it off this time. It was like a sports fantasy land. Losing was odd, unfamiliar, and easily forgotten. Winning became expected, almost mundane, and ordinary.

After last season's Super Bowl I called my dad, as I'm sure so many fans in New England did. Our conversation was probably so different from the one we had after the 2000 Super Bowl that they would be unrecognizable as topically related. In 2000 I think we were both screaming. I remember saying, "I have never been this happy in my life!" (A line that caused me to spend the better part of the night that my team finally won something consoling an hysterical girlfriend who took offense to that concept.) I think I remember my dad telling me that he went into my 15 year old sister's room and picked her up out of bed he was so elated. It was a feeling totally unknown to us. Last year I think we talked for a while about the actual game and about how this whole winning thing was becoming routine. I remember starting the conversation saying, "Ho, hum another Super Bowl, " half sarcastically, half seriously.

It's amazing how easy it is to get used to winning. But now in retrospect it meant so much to this region and to me. It gave us pride and identity. We wore Patriots jerseys, hats, t-shirts, and sweatshirts with pride. That pride was unchallengable because our team (unlike our fans) did their talking on the field, and they spoke loudly. Success was also a interpersonal galvanizing force in this area. It was something that had grown men who don't know each other hugging on a street corner in Brighton after the first Super Bowl victory. It had traffic stopped on Beacon Street in Cleveland Circle horns happily honking as crazed fans celebrated in the streets. It brought us together more than arguing after losses ever drove us apart and hopefully, as we head into our first off season of discontent we will remember that. This organization handled itself with discretion and class at all times, and while fans will never do that I think their behavior (while frustrating) set an example for a region to follow. The team itself didn't care what anyone said about them because they knew that one Sunday's they would more than likely come out on top, that confidence filtered to us. Anyone could say what they wanted about New England, but they couldn't take away our victories or our self assuredness about the victory to come.

This has been a time in Boston sports that I will never forget. When I'm an old man sitting in a rocking chair eulogizing this era to my grandchildren the stories will get magnified and the glories will be exaggerated but my pride in having shared the prime of my life with the prime of Boston sports will remain clear and my gratitude will only grow. Instead of bemoaning the potential end of a dynasty I wish to thank the Patriots organization for providing us with one in the first place and wish them luck in continuing their success (for our benefit and theirs) down the line. Like I said before 4 out of 6 would still be a dynasty.

Monday, January 16, 2006

It's Over

Ding dong the witch is dead.

The Patriots finally ran out of magic on Saturday night and with a whimper the dynasty has come to an end. What a tough way to go out. 5 turnovers, (2 by the previously unflappable Tom Brady, 1 by the normally sure handed Troy Brown, and one caused by a kicker) a missed field goal by the immortal Adam Vinatieri, an absolutely atrocious pass interference call on Asanti Samuel, and a couple of missed receivers was too much for the champs to sprinkle their fairy dust on this time.

It's tough to imagine that such a historical run could be ended by someone with such questionable taste in facial hair like Jake Plummer. I'm not ready to talk about what this run has meant to me and to New England yet, so I'll just stick to Saturday's game for now.

In the end this game did not in any way resemble what I was expecting. Most observers thought that if the Pats could stop Denver's running attack and force Jake Plummer to lose the game with mistakes then it would be another trip to the AFC title game for New England. They did all that. The problem was they didn't hold up their end of the bargain. Tom Brady looked very ordinary all day (despite his stats) frequently missing receivers and looking rattled, they could not establish a run to slow down Denver's blitz, and they did the unthinkable (at least to Belichick) they made mistakes.

The most frustrating thing for me, as a fan is that Denver did not beat them, they beat themselves. I knew that the dynasty was going to end and probably this year, but I never thought that I would be sitting here writing about how the Patriots lost a winnable game in January because of sloppy play (particularly sloppy play by Brady). That simply has not been their M.O. throughout this championship run. If they had played a solid game and lost to a better team that would be one thing. Then again, if they had played a solid game they wouldn't have lost.

3 plays changed the complexion of the game.

1. The pass interference call on Asanti Samuel. This has been widely discussed but I need to throw my 2 cents into the pot. My biggest pet-peeve in sports is bad officiating. There is no excuse for it. Those purists who say that human error is a part of sports have never lost a game because of a horrendous call that could have been avoided with better eyesight or technology or if they have they are just stupid. With the replay technology in place there should never be a missed or blown call. Just get it right, I don't care how long the game takes just do not cost a team their season because of a human mistake. The referees are there to moderate the game, not win or lose it for one side or the other. Ideally they should never be discussed because they should never screw up, and if they do the technology is there to fix it. Use it. This call wasn't even questionable, Ashlie Lelie committed P.I. on Asanti Samuel, not the other way around and everyone from Boston to Denver, including the 2 officials who royally cocked it up, knows that. It was a game changing mistake, and while you can't say that one play cost the Pats the game it certainly put them behind the 8-ball.

2. Tom Brady's interception at the goal line, returned 100 yards by Champ Bailey. Unthinkable. That's just one of many words that start with "un" that could be used to describe this play. Brady doesn't make these mistakes. He doesn't completely blow a read at a crucial time, effectively costing his team the game. It just does not happen. But it happened and everyone in my bar at the time had the same look of shock and bewilderment on their face because no one had ever seen this before. There isn't really anything else to say about it, Brady made a mistake and they payed dearly for it, period. The end of the play was puncuated with another questionable call as Ben Watson put the hit of a lifetime on Bailey on the 1 causing a fumble that may or may not have gone out of the end zone, but unfortunately in this case the replay really was inconclusive. That point is beside the fact because if Brady hadn't made the initial mistake they wouldn't have been there to begin with, hoping to get bailed out by the officals (they did owe us one).

3. Troy Brown's fumbled punt. I love Troy Brown, but this was inexcusable. He's not even fast anymore, he can't juke anyone, he presents no threat to take a kick back for a touchdown. The only reason he would ever field a kick (and he didn't field many this season) would be his sure hands. So much for that theory. It ended up being a killer as Denver took it in for their game clinching score.

You'll notice that I didn't include Kevin Faulk's fumble on this list. 1 reason, without the P.I. call it's probably irrelevant. I also didn't include the Ellis Hobbs' fumble because: a. I refuse to discuss any fumbles caused by a freaking punter, and b. I'm still in shock that he even had the the ball, isn't that just asking for trouble?

As the saying goes, "Dance with the gal that brung ya." The Patriots tried to dance with the "gals" that brought them, i.e. Brady and Brown, but this time they stepped all over our feet.

Now that the season is over we as fans have to admit to ourselves that we always knew it wasn't going to happen this time. We all got excited, myself included, in their late season run against soft competition, as we should have, but at the end of the day we knew that this just wasn't the same team. The injuries and having to play 2 playoff games on the road were too much to overcome for a team that, as Brady put was, "running on fumes." Had they stayed healthy, or even gotten some of the guys who went down back for the playoffs, they very easily could have won the Super Bowl again. I can say that with confidence because they could have won it anyway. If you take out 3 plays from Saturday's game the AFC Championship game is in Foxboro on Sunday (which you have to think they would have won) and then a week later they would be in Detroit to play a team (either one) that would have lost to every AFC team in the playoffs (except maybe Jacksonville). Call me a homer but it could have happened.

The rest of the NFL should be on notice, the Pats will be back next year, and they will be healthy, and they will be very good. I would hold off on sticking that fork in the dynasty just yet...

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Other Divisional Weekend Stuff:

They say that the true measure of a player is revealed, not after a victory but after a loss. Peyton Manning showed his true colors yesterday. In typically post-loss weasel fashion he turned on his offensive line, that had protected him beautifully all season long and promptly threw them under the perverbial bus after Indy's (God affirming) 21-18 loss to the Steelers. The headline in Indy probably reads something like "Colt's overcome Ref's, NFL, Bettis - Still Lose."

Don't tell me that the NFL wasn't dying to get Peyton Manning to the Super Bowl. Don't even try it. The reversal of Troy Polamalu's interception was the worst call of the replay era and revealed an agenda on the part of the referees. There was NO evidence on that tape that could conclusively prove that he did not have control of the ball. He stood up with it for the love of Pete, if that isn't a football move then clearly I am misunderstanding the definition of the term. I was driving to work during that play so I was listening on the radio, and the commentators were having the following discussion during the reveiew.

-Well this certainly is a desperate move by Tony Dungy here. There is no way they can overturn this one.

- You're right absolutely no way. Dungy had to throw the flag here and take a shot but Polamalu clearly had it the whole way.

- They are heading towards the exits here at the RCA Dome, everyone seems to sense that this one is over.

(silence as the ruling is announced)

- Oh that is just highway robbery!

Now that was not on Steelers radio, it was national Westwood One coverage of the game, and he used the term highway robbery. That certainly says something about the validity of the call. It's so shocking because it wasn't one of those bang-bang plays where they made the wrong call on the field and then didn't have a good angle at the play for a review. They made the right call on the field, had perfect visual evidence of it, and then reversed it based on...an NFL mandate that D-Caf has to make it to Detroit maybe?

This just makes me sick. The whole season was set up to force Indy through the regular season with homefield advantage (they played the Bridgewater State J.V. team for the first 8 weeks of the season) so that they wouldn't have to go on the road (ah hem New England) in the playoffs. Oddly enough they get their bye right before their Monday night game at the Pats, after New England has been playing only 10 win teams since week 1. Then this crap yesterday, it's just so transparent and nauseating, I can't (bleeping) stand it. I know I'm completely off the reservation here and am conspiracy theorizing out of my rear end but there is absolutely no denying what the NFL wanted. Maybe I'm exaggerating a little bit but if that call wasn't an attempt to keep Indy in it how do you explain it? Do you have to take 7 steps and dance a jig before you have possession now? Not to mention the non-P.I. call earlier in the game when Marlon Jackson just mugged Antwan Randle-El 2 steps before the ball arrived when Pittsburgh was threatening to go up 21-0. Either this was the worst officiated game in the history of the NFL or there was a little unspoken thing around the water cooler that it would be a good thing for everyone if D-Caf moved on. (Or I'm just nuts.)

Anyway, it makes me unendingly happy that after all the hype and all the 19-0 talk that the Colts will be watching the Super Bowl at home (and you can bet Peyton won't be invited to too many BBQs at his offensive linemen's houses this offseason). Remember when, earlier in the season, there was talk that this Colt's team might be literally the best professional sports team ever? People were actually saying that. Good looking out guys, they made it exactly was far as the immortal Washington Redskins. Oops. Practice your "Daddy why!?" face with Eli this offseason Peyton, you're going to need it.

Moving on. Wow, the Bears lost! Holy Cow, how did the Monsters of the Midway, the best defense since 1986, the indominable Rex Grossman lose at home in their first playoff game? Oh right, they're just not that good. Their offense still stinks and they won a crappy division. All those crashing noises you hear are the people leaping off the Bears bandwagon. A couple numbers for you on that impenetrable Bears defense: 432 yards of total offense, 218 yards receiving for Steve Smith (ah...Lovie...you had some clue they were going to go to him right...because you probably should have covered him...once...at all), 319 yards for Jake Delhomme, 123 yards rushing for Carolina as a team, and 29 points allowed. That much offensive production surprised even me, who picked against the Bears all season.

On the positive side for the Bears you do have to give Grossman some credit. He was playing in his first playoff game against a ferocious Carolina defense and he played about as well as someone who once rode the bench behind Kyle Orton could. In all seriousness, I was impressed by his poise, too bad he's just one cog in an absolutely stagnant offensive machine.

And finally in the shocker of the week the Seahawks beat the Redskins at home. Yawn...what else is on? I thought Seattle was going to absolutely kill the Redskins. I also thought that Shaun Alexander was going to play so that probably had something to do with the relatively close score. This game contained nothing for me, I was just waiting for the Seahawks to put the hammer on the 'Skins which they finally did with a 6 minute drive for a field goal in the 4th quarter after Washington had pulled within 7. The NFC is just boring isn't it? It's like the NL East, you know the Braves are going to win but you also know that it doesn't matter because they're out in the playoffs anyway.

More Pats dynasty stuff this week and an Championship game preview, even though I don't really care anymore. Maybe I'll start talking about the Celtics, maybe I'll look into the JFK assasination since I seem to like conspiracies right now.

Saturday, January 14, 2006

The Real Preview

Okay here we go with the full preview of this week's divisional playoff games.

Patriots at Broncos: Like I said in my earlier "Preview Preview" this game scares me more than it scares a lot of Pats fans. If it were being played in any other city against any other 13-3 team I would be totally on board, but Denver has been as much a nemesis to this dynasty as we have seen in the past 4 years (much more so than their "rival" Indy), especially at home. Invesco field is a incredibly difficult place to play, as evidenced by the Broncos 8-0 record there during the regular season. For some strange reason this is also the one place where Tom Brady tends to look a little confused and a little bit rattled by the crowd. That won't happen tonight, Brady doesn't get rattled in the playoffs, but this homefield advantage is something to look out for and something that is being widely under-discussed.

The Broncos also have one of the best running attacks in football (159 yards per game) and while the Patriots front 7 has been playing great football recently stopping the Denver run game has been something only 1 team has been able to do so far this year. Baltimore held them under 100 rushing yards in their matchup, otherwise they have been over the century mark in every contest. The combination of Tatum Bell, Mike Anderson, and Ron Dayne have accounted for over 2000 rushing yards, 21 touchdowns, and only 4 fumbles. The Patriots chances in this game start and end with stopping the run, not simply because it allows Denver to move the ball and control the clock but also because it dictates the play of Jake the Snake. Jake Plummer relies heavily on the Denver rushing attack to carry the load and allow for minimal pass attempts. In the past when too much emphasis has been put on Plummer's shoulders he has wilted and made crucial mistakes on dumb throws on the run and into coverage. That should be the goal of the Patriots defense this afternoon, stop the run and make Plummer hand you the game.

Defensively the Broncos only allowed 16 points per game, but that being said I like the Patriots chances to put points on the board. Remember, this is the same defense that allowed the Patriots to come within one dropped pass of erasing a 28-3 lead at Invesco field earlier in the season. The key to the Patriots offense is 2-fold. First they must establish some sort of running game with either Corey Dillon or a combination of backs if he is ineffective. The effect of this will obviously be to stop the zone blitzing that the Broncos love to use, particularly on 3rd down, and it will also move the clock which is always crucial on the road in a hostile environment. Second, they absolutely must keep Tom Brady upright. No amount of running game is going to force Denver out of their blitz schemes completely, they are absolutely married to them, so how the Patriots block against the rush will be crucial. If they allow Brady to be sacked 4 times like he was last week it could be a very long evening.

Despite their records this seems like a pretty even matchup of the Patriots' postseason magic against the Broncos' homefield advantage. If this turns into a classic, which it certainly could the advantage immediately goes to the Patriots (Brady and Viniatieri, duh). They don't lose classics. This game worries me, but until proven otherwise I will not pick against the Pats in an elimination game. Pick: Pats by 3.


Redskinds at Seahawks: Last week against a miserable Tampa Bay team Washington put up less than 150 yards of total offense. If they don't have a 150 yards by halftime of this game they are done. Seattle is the class of the NFC and while they have been shaky at best in the playoffs in recent years I see that trend turning around today. Sean Alexander is arguably the best player in football this year and Matt Hasselbeck (though balding at an alarming rate) is the finest QB in the NFC, that alone should be enough to beat a mediocre Redskins team. Throw in some homefield advantage, a bye week, a banged up Clinton Portis, and Mark Brunell at QB and this looks like a blowout. The only chance the Redskins have is to get Portis going to control the clock and then hope for a big play on defense, preferably resulting in a touchdown. Otherwise this is Seattle all the way. Pick: Seattle by 18.


Panthers at Bears: After the 1986 Super Bowl I wish nothing but misery on the Chicago Bears. That being said they have had a fantastic season, especially defensively. Unfortunately most of the keys to playoff victory side with Carolina.

1. Quarterback, I don't like Jake Delhomme much but I like him a heck of a lot better than Rex Grossman who has thrown for 259 yards and 1 touchdown on the season and has never started a playoff game. Delhomme has played in a Super Bowl and will not be rattled by the Chicago crowd.

2. Experience, maybe this should be number 1. In the playoffs experience in playing for your life counts for a lot. The Bears simply don't have any, the Panthers as I said have been to a Super Bowl.

3. Coaching, take nothing away from Lovie Smith but what he did this year in Chicago was partly a product of a lousy division in a lousy conference and a few lucky bounces. John Fox is a defensive genius who almost came up with enough to beat the Pats in the Super Bowl 2 years ago. It won't take a genius to stop Rex Grossman and Thomas Jones.

4 Playmakers, the Panthers have the playmaker of the year in Steve Smith, the Bears have Mushin Muhammed, advantage Smith.

That all adds up to Carolina having the edge. The big factor I'm not considering here is obviously the homefield advantage of the Bears. Soldier Field has always been a tough place to play. I'm not sure what the weather will be like today but if I had to guess I would say it's cold and windy which plays to the Bears advantage. If the Panthers had a distinct edge in 2 or even 3 of the key playoff categories I would say that the homefield balances it out for the Bears, but they won't be able to overcome all 4. Pick: Panthers by 7.


Steelers at Colts: (Sigh...) I just don't know. The Patriots fan in me wants to say that the Steelers can win this game. The logical sports observer (who lives very deeply buried) in me wants to say that they have no chance. Oh hell with it, since when do I listen to that logical voice anyway. Pittsburgh has a chance if 2 things happen, and I'm not exactly going out on a limb here. 1. Indy comes out flat and rusty and is unable to move the ball with the precision that they normally do, i.e. only scoring once in their first 3 possessions. This is a distinct possibility, I don't care how good you are through 13 weeks of the regular season 5 weeks without a meaningful game is an awfully long time. 2. They run run run all day long. They need to keep the ball and keep the clock moving. On the road you always want to play the shortest game possible, on the road in Indy you want a veritable time machine to rush you through the game. Jerome Bettis needs to be that time machine, gashing 4 to 6 yard runs regularly. While the Colts defense is much improved they still are not particularly punishing or physical, Bettis is. If he can hit them right in the mouth from the opening gun and keep D-Caf on the sidelines the Steelers could be able to hang around.

The problem is no matter how long you hold the ball you eventually have to give it back, and if you give it back to the Colts more than 8 times you lose. Their offense is absolutely incredible when it's clicking and the Pittsburgh defense is weak on the corners, which is exactly where Manning loves to attack. I'm rooting with all my might for the Steelers, but I just don't see it. Pick: Colts by 10.

Skippy

It's been a while since we've blasted Skip Bayless here in B-Slant country, but the time has come yet again. Please read this. When finished, please refer to the following reasons why Vince Young is not the greatest thing since sliced bread.

1. Sidearm throwing motion. Skippy discounts it, Dwight Freeny, Richard Seymour, Mike Peterson, Lavar Arrington, and everyone else who ventures to block passes do not. David Carr throws over the top.

2. Vince Young, one great game against great competition. 2.9 years of good games against decent competition. Reggie Bush, 3 years of incomparable games against better competition.

3. UCS is better than Texas, Rose Bowl notwithstanding. Texas is the national champion, USC is better.

4. Reactionary thinking has led to: Vietnam, both Gulf Wars, Kyle Boller's job, Raef LaFrentz's contract, Mo Vaughn's contract, Mike Martz's (until recently) continued employment. Shall I continue?

5. Michael Jordan is the best athlete of my generation, and the best basketball player ever. To even use the word Jordanesque in almost any sense is moronic and insulting to MJ. To use it to refer to a college football player who didn't even win the Heisman is unfair to Young and totally Skip-iffied (my new term for all things related to Skip).

6. Vick was better than Young in college. Cunningham was a running machine. Culpepper has been a Pro-Bowler. McNabb has played in a Super Bowl. They all threw the ball like someone with differing chromosomes, Young does not. Furthermore, he's just not fast enough to pull the drop back, pretend to pass for a split second and then run garbage, that he pulled against USC. Even Vick isn't fast enough to get away with that and he's the fastest man in pro sports.

7. Skip Bayless's endorsement = guaranteed failure.

God I hate Skip Bayless for forcing me into late night, marginally mentally affected blogging!

Friday, January 13, 2006

Preview Preview

I'm going to do a more extensive preview of this weekend's divisional playoff games later, check for it tomorrow morning, but I want to get one quick thought out on the Pats / Denver game right now.

Remember last year at exactly this time when everyone was picking the Colts to go into Gillette and beat the Pats? Everyone lauded the efforts of New England in winning the previous Super Bowl and gaining the 1st round bye but really those statements were just cream filling for their real thoughts: the Patriots have no chance. I'm getting the same sense from a lot of pundits coming into this matchup and it's making me very nervous. They are talking about Denver's running game and the home field advantage at Invesco Field, but after that no one is really saying that Denver can win this game. Believe me, they can.

Remember the odd quiet that always seems to come from Belechick and the Pats before these games? That's exactly what we're hearing from Denver right now, nothing. There is no talk about whether their defensive leader is healthy, there is no talk about their playoff win streak (since they have the opposite, 0 wins since John Elway's departure), there is not a single solitary peep coming from the Mile High city right now. That to me says something. The Patriots are not saying anything either, but last year all of the talk was about the visiting Colts knocking off the champs. Now all the talk is about the visiting champs knocking off the Broncos to extend the dynasty. These things tend to motivate teams, maybe more than we know, and don't think for a second that Mike Shannahan is not using the popular perception that his team is the underdog to his advantage in practice.

If I had a choice I would stick a sock in the mouths of all the analysts that are examining this game, no need to fan the flames of the legitimately under-appreciated Broncos. They were easily the 2nd best team in football and navigated one of the toughest divisions in the league (containing two teams that spanked New England). I think the Pats will win (it's hard to believe that Jake Plummer will end the dynasty) but I think it is going to be a monumental struggle and if they do it will be they who are pulling the upset, not the other way around.

More later after a thrilling Phatt Boys shift.

Wednesday, January 11, 2006

BC Drops Another

The Boston College men's basketball team continued it's free-fall through the top 25 last night with a 78-60 loss at home to North Carolina State. The loss dropped the Eagles record in the ACC to 0-3 and kept them in the basement of their new league.

While I fully expected that there would be an adjustment period for BC heading into the best basketball conference in the country I did not think that it would be this bad. So far the 3 ACC teams that have beaten them have all been ranked lower than the Eagles, and Georgia Tech who beat them on Sunday was not ranked at all. Heading into their ACC debut at Maryland BC was ranked 6th in the nation, by tip-off last night their ranking had fallen to 15th and with last night's loss to 18th ranked NC State the plummet will surely continue.

Coming in to the season I was cautious about the Eagles' chances on the road in the ACC regardless of the caliber of the opponent. Every road game from Duke to Clemson is a challenge in this league and every fan in those stands is out for blood. However, even I (the biggest BC pessimist to ever attend the institution) thought that they would be able to defend their home floor against teams over whom they have at least a marginal advantage. Apparently I was wrong.

In thinking about last night's game one thing occurred to me. If a team is used to playing their road games at Duke, UNC, and Maryland coming to the Heights must seem like a vacation. Unlike the big time programs the students and fans at Conte Forum are almost entirely removed from the floor, allowing for a very quiet environment. The seats closest to the court are (in typical BC fashion) given to the highest bidders, donors, and VIPs. The majority of students (who don't arrive 2 hours early to sit behind one of the baskets) are relegated to the upper decks, high above the court. The spectators that sit close to the floor are reminiscent of an NBA crowd, hardly involved in the game, rarely loud, and never a factor for the other team. The risers behind the baskets are filled with rowdy fans but they are tiny, holding maybe a few hundred students total, which is a far cry from the entire lower level at Cameron Indoor or the huge walls behind the baskets at Maryland. Also, the older fans at BC games are not there to chant, cheer, heckle, and root for the Eagles, in fact I wonder why they are there at all. The older alumni and fans at other arenas are like an extra student section, and in fact may be more involved than the BC student section. The point is that Conte Forum is almost like a neutral site for visiting teams. It occassionally gets loud but in general the fan base is apathetic and many of the students who would like to go to the games can't get tickets because such a large percentage of the seats are used for BC's political purposes. (Don't forget how badly the administration bungled student ticket sales for this season.)

If the athletic director Gene DeFillipo hopes to build a competitive basketball program in the ACC serious changes need to be made to the atmosphere at Conte Forum to make it advantageous for the home team because right now that area holds no intimidation for visiting opponents whatsoever. Watching the Eagles play at home after watching the Maryland crowd literally take over the game at College Park a few weeks ago is like comparing apples and oranges. In a close game the atmosphere can be the 6th man, but the lack thereof can also add confidence to a road team that should be overmatched. That was the case last night. The crowd wasn't a factor and NC State took advantage. Someone at BC needs to figure this out, and quickly. If they continue to drop home games, and then have to go on the road in the conference to try to save their season it could be a long year for Al Skinner and his squad.

As for this game itself the Eagles created a bevy of problems on their own without help from a nonexistent crowd. On offense they missed 16 of their first 19 shots, their first 8 of the second half and finished the game shooting 32.3% from the field, 33% from 3 point range, and 59% from the free throw line. Defensively they looked lost, allowing NC State to shoot 63.4% from the field and an absurd 58.8% from beyond the arc. As coach Herb Sendek said after the game the Wolfpack were able to score, "in a variety of ways." Chris Simmons created, "matchup problems" (translation: they couldn't stop him) and Tony Bethel was lights out from outside hitting 4 of 6 3's. The normally potent combination of Jared Dudley and Non-American Craig Smith combined to shoot 11-34 and accounted for 30 total points.

After the game Al Skinner said, "As much as I hate to say it this tape goes in the trash. There's nothing in it for us." Ah, Al there's tons in it for you. Start with Sean Williams, remind him to watch for the backdoor play that burned him not once, not twice, but three times in the second half. Isn't he your defensive specialist? Is he not a liability on offense and only gets minutes for his play on the defensive end? Or maybe you could show Craig Smith a tape of himself shooting a 3 and remind him that he is a faux All-American because of his inside game, not his ability to hit from outside, or better yet show him a tape of Chris Simmons lighting him up to show him what effective interior play looks like. In fact point out every player and just about everything they did as an example of what not to do, come on coach this should be running on a constant loop in the locker room until they get this stuff right.

The only positive from this game was that the Eagles mounted a mini-run to pull within 9 on a Sean Marshall 3 with 12:45 to play. During the 2 minutes prior to that basket BC showed its only signs of life, putting on defensive pressure and making shots. A quick dunk on NC State's next possession put a stop to that and the gig was up.

If BC has any hope of competing in this league this year and beyond they need to learn how to play ACC basketball. In this league you need consistent shooters, not just horses inside, and your horses inside need to be more than 6'8" bulldogs that can be stopped and contained by a tall double team. You need these players to construct a more explosive offense that can come back from defecits because every team in this league (except BC) has the ability to make a huge run and get a lead, especially at home. Guard play is at a premium because defensive pressure is a commonality, particularly on the road where you need poised ball handlers to handle the intense environments. Al Skinner has done a great job getting fringe players that were under recruited and turning them into stars at BC, now to compete he needs actual stars. The time for scrappy Sean Marshalls and Tyrese Rices has passed at the Heights, if the team's makeup does not reflect that after this season 0-3 starts will be no rarity.

Monday, January 09, 2006

Wild Card Weekend

For Tom Brady, Bill Belichick, and the Gillette Stadium faithful it was business as usual. The Patriots, by virtue of a dominating second half eliminated the overmatched Jacksonville Jaguars 28-3 on Saturday night to advance to the divisional round of the AFC playoffs. The win was an NFL record 10th straight playoff win for the Pats and it ran the unblemished record of the Brady / Belichick duo to 10-0. With the victory (and a Pittsburgh win over Cincinnati) the Patriots earned a trip to Denver next Saturday night to face the Broncos at Invesco Field at Mile High.

Coming in to the matchup most experts and fans agreed that the Patriots had the advantage given their playoff history and the home climate conditions in New England in January but few expected that the margin would be this wide. After all the Jaguars were 12-4, 2 games better than the Patriots in what is a tougher division (only given the presence of the Colts). They played Indianapolis tough twice, losing by 7 on both occassions (and they only gave up 10 points in the first meeting). They also beat Seattle, Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh in the first 6 weeks of the season. After week 7, however, their schedule weakened remarkably as they played only 1 team with a winning record over their last 10 and in the end their 3 good wins early in the season were their only legitimate victories. (You were wondering where all the terrible teams were while the Patriots were getting manhandled by the entire cast of the NFL playoffs? They were playing the Jags.) They also lost Byron Leftwich on November 27th for the majority of the second half allowing their weak schedule to grant them a few victories they may not have merited with backup David Garrard. Nevertheless they were a 12 win team which is impressive regardless of whom the victories came against. They did not make their own schedule they simply beat all of the teams on it.

That leaves me with a question. Are the Patriots this good or are the Jaguars this bad?

One key to answering that question is the decision by Jack Del Rio to start Byron Leftwich against the Patriots. Frankly, put in the same position I probably would have started Leftwich over David Garrard. The rookie had played well but in a playoff game against Bill Belichick I would not want my chips riding on a player with just over 100 career pass attempts (0 against teams with winning records). The Pats make a living out of confusing quarterbacks and forcing them into mistakes and it is much easier to do so to a player who has never faced a Belichick defense. However since the Jaguars failed to muster a single touchdown an argument could be made that Garrard should have been given a chance. Leftwich was rusty, going 18-31 for 179 yards and no touchdowns. Garrard in limited action was 3-8 for 68 yards (41 of which came on 1 play). Leftwich predictably was immobile and unable to elude the rush of the defensive line, especially that of Willie McGinist who set an NFL playoff record with 4.5 sacks. Maybe the mobility of Garrard would have helped keep him upright, maybe his inexperience would have resulted in more tunrovers. I think in the end it did not really matter. When a team is forced to choose between starting an injured veteran with limited playoff experience or a rookie with none in New England the deck is immediately stacked against them.

Furthermore, this Jaguars team was not the same team that beat 3 top teams early in the season. At that time Fred Taylor was healthy, coming into this game he was not. (Gasp! Fred Taylor injured? He should not have enrolled in that Nomar Garciaparra school of durability.) Leftwich was getting time to throw down the field to a resurgent Jimmy Smith among others. And the defense led by a healthy Mike Peterson was stingy to say the least. After Taylor went down for a while and Leftwich got banged up they were entering the easy part of their schedule and the fortuitous matchups kept their record deceptively high.

In this game they met a New England team with a similar scheduling trend but moving in a totally different direction. Rather than using their easy schedule to fool people into believing they were a threat in the playoffs the Pats used their downtime to actually become one. To conclude either way on the question I posed above is difficult in this type of game. There is no question that the Patriots are good but a 28-3 margin is probably pushing expectations, and while the Jaguars looked totally anemic throughout they certainly are not this bad. However, given Leftwich and Taylor's injuries, the dreadful performance by the defense in the second half, and the fact that Del Rio looked totally overwhelmed all night I tend to lean more towards the Jaguars being this bad than the Pats being this good. I would hate to sound like I am disrespecting Tom Brady (quick duck!) but New England by no means played a perfect game and while the score reflects a blowout I'm not convinced that the margin was due entirely to superiority by the Pats.

Throughout this contest the Patriots made several key mistakes that would have buried them against a better team. 4 first half sacks on Tom Brady is far too many as are 4 fumbles (none of which were lost). They only managed 126 yards of offense over the first 30 minutes, but fortunately the defense held Jacksonville to only 115. At the end of the second quarter they had a chance to bury the hatchet but Deion Branch dropped Brady's long pass that hit him right in stride. Opportunities like that cannot be squandered against a better team like Denver, especially since they will not come out and completely lay down in the second half.

The Pats offense, more specifically Ben Watson, clinched the game late in the 3rd quarter with his incredible 63 yard touchdown reception. At the time the score was 14-3 and while Jacksonville had yet to accomplish anything in the second half the score was close enough to keep the game in doubt. On 3rd and 13 Watson caught a short pass from Brady on the right hash, broke 3 tackles, one of which seemed to narrowly miss bringing him down, and took it all the way to make it 21-3. Just a few plays later the outcome was fully decided when Asanti Samuel took an interception 73 yards to notch the final score of the game.

While I said that I thought this victory was more due to the failures of the Jaguars than the impressiveness of the Patriots there were plenty of positives that the team can carry into this week. Tom Brady was his usual steady self, throwing for 201 yards and 3 touchdowns (1 to David Givens who has caught a TD in his last 6 playoff games) with a passer rating of 116.4. The three headed rushing attack of Dillon, Faulk, and Pass accounted for only 98 yards but helped to manage the clock in the second half when the Pats were sitting on a lead. The defense accounted for 2 turnovers, 6 sacks, and a touchdown. The defensive unit also did not give up a 1st down until the 2nd possession of the 2nd quarter and stopped the Jags on 11 of 12 3rd down chances. Most importantly the Patriots overcame their meager performance in the 1st half and came out firing in the 2nd and were able to put the game away. That is vintage Patriots football. The championship teams of the past few years always seemed to come out of halftime with a renewed energy and a few adjustments that were able to put them over the top, these final 2 quarters were reminiscent of that. The teams that won the Super Bowl did not always play perfect games either, but they always did enough to win. That trait was something that was missing in this team earlier in the season but they seemed to find a little of that old 2nd half magic on Saturday and it distanced them from a mediocre Jacksonville team. If they can carry that momentum further into the playoffs they could be very tough to beat, but if they waffle around in the 1st half in Denver we could see a repeat of the game that took place earlier this season where they nearly dug themselves out of a 28-6 hole built by their inefficiency early in the game.

If the Pats hope to run their NFL record playoff win streak to 11 they will need to build upon this performance, not repeat it. Denver is probably the 2nd best team in the NFL and will be rested coming off of the bye. As Brady always says, "It will be a good test for us." It's a test they need to ace from the beginning, not just from the beginning of the 2nd half if they hope to continue their dynasty.

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Other Wild Card Weekend Notes:

Carolina at Giants: Eli in the playoffs, Eli in the playoffs, freakin' Eli in the playoffs. 3 interceptions (on 3 consecutive possessions), a lost fumble, and a mere 10 completions. Welcome to the big time D-Caf Jr. It seems that you have all the playoff poise that is genetically passed down to you from your big bro who can't win in the post season either. Luckily for the state of his car windows while driving through Manhattan Manning was not the lone Giant to fail to show up on Sunday. Tiki Barber a legitimate regular season MVP candidate managed only 41 yards on 13 carries. The G-Men as a whole put up a whopping 132 yards of total offense, exactly 0 of which were accounted for by Plaxico Burress. Remember when the Giants were considered a Super Bowl contender? Were you on board with that? Don't hang your head in shame, many people forgot that Mannings cannot win under the bright lights, just remember that when setting the line on D-Caf Sr. this weekend. I hate to revel in the failures of an individual but when that individual is so detestable it's just hard not to. We'll miss your "Daddy Why!?" sour puss this off season D-Caf Jr.. Hopefully you and Peyton can watch the Super Bowl together.

Washington at Tampa: In the least shocking road victory in the history of the NFL playoffs the Redskins edged the Bucs 17-10 to earn the right to lose to Seattle this weekend. Should this have been any surprise? It certainly was not to Patriots fans who watched the Bucs get simply demolished 28-0 a few weeks ago in New England. Like I said in my Wild Card weekend preview I can't believe that both of these teams made the playoffs. I would have much rather seen Vick and the Falcons than either of these teams, oh right the Falcons stunk too. Wow the NFC is horrible. Moving on.

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati: I really wish that Carson Palmer had not gotten hurt on the first play of the game. How telling was it that the play on which he tore his ACL and MCL would end up being the longest play from scrimmage of the day (and in franchise playoff history) for the Bengals? This could have been a classic matchup of speed vs. power, instead Pittsburgh was able to turn it into classic Steelers football with their running attack and their defensive pressure. The rest of the game saw Jon Kitna running for his life and trying not to lose the game for the Bengals, which in fact he did not. He just wasn't good enough to win it for them either. You have to feel bad for the fans of the Bengals, this was their first trip to the playoffs in 15 years and their franchise QB was finally playing the brand of football that was expected when they drafted him a few years ago. Their offense was exciting, their defense led the league in turnover margin, and their coach seemed to be pushing all of the right buttons. Then exactly one play into the game it all came crashing down. Regardless of Palmer's injury it seemed to me that the Bengals were on the down-slide anyway. They probably lost half on purpose to the Chiefs in week 17 but even before that the air was leaking from the balloon. In addition Kitna was one of only a dozen Bengals who had any playoff experience coming in so that advantage (which is huge in the playoffs) was with the Steelers going in. I took the Steelers in this game because I felt that would be the difference, but I certainly wish we had gotten to see how the best matchup of Wild Card Weekend would have played out with the Bengals at full strength.

Wednesday, January 04, 2006

My Weekend Predictions

Here are my predictions for the upcoming weekend, including tonight's Rose Bowl. I just wanted to get these opinions on the record so that when (if lightning strikes) I'm right you cannot say I did not tell you so.

Rose Bowl: USC by 14. I don't think Texas has much of a chance in this game. It's essentially a home game for the Trojans. Yes there will be a lot of Texas fans there but you cannot discount the fact that the game is being played in friendlier and more familiar confines for USC. They are closer to home, the locals are their fans, and their star(S!) are better than Texas' lone star... Simple math can provide the result: 2 Heisman trophy winners + 1 backup running back superior to all athletes on the opposing team save one - 1 quasi-legitimate Heisman candidate (LOUSY competition in the Big 12) = 2. Multiply the result by 7 (Matt Leinart's number 11 - Reggie Bush's number 5 + the number of times Texas has played in a game this important since 1970 1) and there you have it, a 14 point margin of victory.

EDIT: I am an idiot. 0-1, every USC fan should hold a huge grudge against me because I am the biggest jinx in sports. Or maybe they should look at Pete Carroll and his inexplicable decision not to spy Vince Young for the entire second half (or at least the last freaking drive when everyone in the world knew that the only way they were scoring was on a scramble!), or not to give Reggie Bush the ball on 4th and 2 with the game on the line. Didn't he win the Heisman? Didn't Matt Leinart win one as well? Nah forget all that, give it to that White kid instead, he deserves some time in the spotlight right? In case you forgot why Pete Carroll failed in New England...

Jaguars at Patriots: Pats by 10. The dynasty might end this year but it will not end at the hands of the greatly overrated Jack Del Rio and the Jacksonville Jaguars in Foxboro. Byron Leftwich had horrible mobility before he got hurt and now with a banged up ankle he is going to be a standing target for Richard Seymour and Mike Vrabel, regardless of how many teammates are there to carry him down the field after completions. Fred Taylor has also been banged up all season and more or less for his entire career, he says that he is healthy but is he ever really? Corey Dillon on the other hand seems to have benefited from having week 17 off and should be a big factor, complimented by his now healthy backups Kevin Faulk and Patrick Pass. The Jags defense is stingy but not dominating and the Pats offense has moved successfully against better this season. Finally, and most importantly Tom Brady and Bill Belichick just do not lose this game. They are not an intangible they are a hammer that drops of the heads of those who come to Foxboro with dreams of glory. Also don't forget that by the end of the game the temperature will be in the high teens, it doesn't get that cold in Florida during this time of year does it?

Pathers at Giants: Eli in the playoffs. Those four words should be enough to put the fear of God into fans of the G-man everywhere. The only way the Giants win this game is if they keep D-Caf Jr. on his feet and make sure that he hands the ball off more than he drops back with it. It's going to take a steady diet of Tiki to slow the aggressive pass rush of the Panthers and slowing that rush is the only way to keep Eli's head in the game and keep is, "Daddy why!?" sour puss off the television screen. On the other side of the ball the Panthers need to get the ball going down the field. Deshaun Foster is taking this team exactly nowhere against NY's run defense so it's on Jake Delhomme and the absurdly talented Steve Smith to carry the load. I see this game being close but I just can't imagine a scenario where Eli can get through a playoff game without killing the Giants. Well actually I can imagine one, the NFL is just DYING to get as many Mannings into the spotlight in Detroit as possible. The schedule and this entire season has been set up to get Peyton there, to get Eli there to play him would just be gravy for Tagliabue so if New York is losing in the 4th quarter the NFL might order a lighning strike or some other natural disaster to strike down the entire Panther team in order to keep their dream alive. Panthers by 7.

Steelers at Bengals: What was that whistling sound followed by a loud boom that you just heard? Yup, that was the Bengals season going down in flames. Okay, that might be a little dramatic. I actually think that this will be the best game of the weekend. I like Pittsburgh because they are on a roll and Cincy just got throttled in their last playoff tune up and have been sliding. The Steelers beat on you relentlessly and gradually wear you down while the Bengals would prefer to play more of a finesse game and it the playoffs the finesse game often gets smacked around by the harder-nosed team (ask Indy). Also, we're talking about Cincinnati here, is anything good allowed to happen to this franchise? I think it will take a huge day through the air for Palmer, Houshmandzadeh, and Chad Johnson because I don't see Rudi Johnson getting anything going against the Steelers front 7. Early in the season the Bengals were running over people because of their amazing secondary in turnover ratio, now that ratio has come down to earth and their corners won't be able to help much against a Pittsburgh 3-headed running attack. Pittsburgh by 3.

Redskins and Buccaneers: Err...both of these teams made the playoffs? The NFC just stinks doesn't it? The Bucs really have to worry about their entire offense being led by rookies. Yes Carnell Williams has been a very impressive rookie but he's a rookie nonetheless and Chris Simms has yet to convince anyone he will be able to handle the pressure of a big game (see his performance at New England a few weeks ago). Mark Brunell on the other hand has been here and will be unfazed by playing a playoff game on the road and despite his injuries Clinton Portis has been running well. Any discussion about this game is basically a moot point because it's a race to see who gets to lose in the next round anyway. I'll go with the Redskins by 5 because of the same phrase I used in the Giants game: Simms in the playoffs.

One other quick note: the FSU vs. Penn State game was a classic but it brought up one question for me. What the heck are Jo-Pa and Bowden doing during these games? Neither of them are wearing headsets or calling plays, hell I don't think I saw either of them talk to a player other than Jo-Pa's paternal "the cameras are watching" head pat to his kicker after his potentially game clinching miss. I posed this question to a Penn State fan sitting at my bar last night during the game and he said, "Shut up, don't wake Jo-Pa up we're doing fine." Finally, has Happy Valley been in the midst of a heat wave or has a certain someone been hitting the tanning bed lately? The man's face was freezer-burn orange, get Jo-Pa some sunscreen before he gets skin cancer for the love of Pete!