Wednesday, June 02, 2010

On The Eve of The Finals

We know the NBA wanted Kobe v. Lebron... Hell I kinda wanted Kobe v. Lebron, but I guess we can settle for two teams that have collectively won almost half of the NBA Championships ever awarded.

When the Celtics face the Lakers for a title it's like all the ghosts of our collective basketball pasts are reincarnated for two weeks. Everybody talks about Russel, Cousy, Bird, Parish, and McHale; West, Magic, and Kareem; DJ and Worthy; and even goggle faced, "Ohhh you got laid out!" Kurt Rambis.

But in this particular case I think talking about the old guys has special significance because both of these rosters are not very far away from being retired suits themselves. Everyone loves to talk about how old the Celtics are but the Lakers aren't an upstart cast of young pups either. Kobe has maybe two years left as the second best player in the world. (Stop sighing and rolling your eyes, just because Lebron couldn't carry a mediocre roster past a better Celtics team doesn't mean that Kobe is better. He just isn't, he used to be, but not anymore.) Gasol is only as "good" as he is because of Kobe and some of the other talent around him (and his game is so fucking ugly and uncoordinated that he's one half goony step away from a blown ACL at any time). Fisher is a dinosaur and Artest might not be human so who knows what his lifespan is.

The one Laker I left out? Lamar Odom. Why? Because I wanted to write this. Someone this week, if it hasn't happened already, is going to write an article or say something about how he is the key player for the Lakers in this series i.e., "You know Rick, I really think that Odom is going to be a key for the Lakers in this series. If he plays his best, with that effort that seems to come and go, the Celtics have no chance. I think he'll do it. Lakers in five." How do people still believe this? The guy has had the chance to be Pippen for a decade now and has been out to lunch for 97% of that time. He hardly ever tries, plays almost no defense, takes possessions off like he's playing for the Longhorns, and still people see one good game and say, "Woweee! That Lamar Odom, if he could play like that every night he'd be a superstar." Yeah? Well he can't. And he won't.

So what is going to be the key?

First for the Lakers... Wait who gives a fuck what the Lakers should do? This is a Boston blog...

Okay, for the Celtics there are a few things.

1. Rondo has to absolutely shred Fisher if they are ever stupid enough to match them up. Fisher got roasted by Russell Westbrook in round one and Westbrook is no Rondo. I'm not saying that Rondo has to score like he has through most of this run, he just has to create inside and cause havoc in the lane.

2. Pierce has to dig deeper into that fountain of youth he discovered before the Orlando series... Even if Kobe covers him. We saw in the Cleveland series that Pierce can't handle bigger, stronger, more athletic defenders. Well, Kobe isn't much bigger and Pierce is probably stronger but Bryant is a much better defender than anyone the Magic ran at him. Plus he has the superstar factor so Pierce won't get many calls on those pump fake and dive into the defender's chest moves that he seems to rely on far too much.

3. Ray Allen has to hit. The problem with having one of the best outside shooters of all time on your roster is that when he goes cold he has to keep shooting to get out of it, essentially throwing possessions away. (See the first few rounds in '08 CLANG!) If Allen can keep it rolling the Celtics have an excellent chance to win this series. If he doesn't he has to keep shooting and we'll have to keep praying because that's the only chance Boston will have. Obviously Rondo's playmaking ability makes his teammates better but I think Allen's shooting has the same effect. If he is making shots is does three things. First it spreads the floor even more for other players. Two, it allows him to get to the basket himself if the defense over pursues to his shot. And finally, it always gives the Celtics a chance late in close games.

4. Old Man River... I mean Kevin Garnett. I don't even know what to say about him. He's been bad in playoffs. I know, I know, they're in the Finals how bad could he have been? I'm telling you, BAD. He has NO elevation anymore and he gets pushed off the spot by every offensive player that weighs more than 180 pounds. He's become all flash and no substance. I love his energy and maybe (hopefully?) he can dig down into that psychotic part of his makeup that made him such a great player and pull out 4-7 great games... But I'm not convinced. He has to pound on Gasol and abuse him like he did two years ago for the Celtics to have a chance. That was the decisive matchup between these two teams in '08; if it flips with the rest of the rosters essentially the same (Wallace and Artest are a diva-wash) how can Boston overcome that?

PREDICTION:

Ummm.... I don't know. Obviously I'm rooting for Boston, I really am but there are a few things working against them.

Did you see Kobe in the last five minutes of game six in Phoenix? Unstoppable, and you just know he wants redemption for being humiliated in Boston two years ago. Bad.

Also, the setup of the finals is different than the first three rounds. It's played 2 in LA, 3 in Boston, and 2 in LA. That doesn't set up very well for the visiting team. Boston basically has to win one in LA and then sweep at home to avoid trying to clinch on the road in game six or seven. A very daunting task to say the least.

I'm going to say Celtics in six, with my heart, not my head. They are the old(er) dogs that know this is their last shot. There is no way this roster looks the same next year and even if it does who knows what the rest of the East or the NBA for that matter will look like? If it doesn't get done now it will be a while before we see banner 18, so I'm saying they dig just deep enough and steal one in LA, then take two out of three at home, and then stun the NBA world by lighting up LA in game six to break Kobe's heart. Here's hoping.