The Real Preview

Okay here we go with the full preview of this week's divisional playoff games.

Patriots at Broncos: Like I said in my earlier "Preview Preview" this game scares me more than it scares a lot of Pats fans. If it were being played in any other city against any other 13-3 team I would be totally on board, but Denver has been as much a nemesis to this dynasty as we have seen in the past 4 years (much more so than their "rival" Indy), especially at home. Invesco field is a incredibly difficult place to play, as evidenced by the Broncos 8-0 record there during the regular season. For some strange reason this is also the one place where Tom Brady tends to look a little confused and a little bit rattled by the crowd. That won't happen tonight, Brady doesn't get rattled in the playoffs, but this homefield advantage is something to look out for and something that is being widely under-discussed.

The Broncos also have one of the best running attacks in football (159 yards per game) and while the Patriots front 7 has been playing great football recently stopping the Denver run game has been something only 1 team has been able to do so far this year. Baltimore held them under 100 rushing yards in their matchup, otherwise they have been over the century mark in every contest. The combination of Tatum Bell, Mike Anderson, and Ron Dayne have accounted for over 2000 rushing yards, 21 touchdowns, and only 4 fumbles. The Patriots chances in this game start and end with stopping the run, not simply because it allows Denver to move the ball and control the clock but also because it dictates the play of Jake the Snake. Jake Plummer relies heavily on the Denver rushing attack to carry the load and allow for minimal pass attempts. In the past when too much emphasis has been put on Plummer's shoulders he has wilted and made crucial mistakes on dumb throws on the run and into coverage. That should be the goal of the Patriots defense this afternoon, stop the run and make Plummer hand you the game.

Defensively the Broncos only allowed 16 points per game, but that being said I like the Patriots chances to put points on the board. Remember, this is the same defense that allowed the Patriots to come within one dropped pass of erasing a 28-3 lead at Invesco field earlier in the season. The key to the Patriots offense is 2-fold. First they must establish some sort of running game with either Corey Dillon or a combination of backs if he is ineffective. The effect of this will obviously be to stop the zone blitzing that the Broncos love to use, particularly on 3rd down, and it will also move the clock which is always crucial on the road in a hostile environment. Second, they absolutely must keep Tom Brady upright. No amount of running game is going to force Denver out of their blitz schemes completely, they are absolutely married to them, so how the Patriots block against the rush will be crucial. If they allow Brady to be sacked 4 times like he was last week it could be a very long evening.

Despite their records this seems like a pretty even matchup of the Patriots' postseason magic against the Broncos' homefield advantage. If this turns into a classic, which it certainly could the advantage immediately goes to the Patriots (Brady and Viniatieri, duh). They don't lose classics. This game worries me, but until proven otherwise I will not pick against the Pats in an elimination game. Pick: Pats by 3.


Redskinds at Seahawks: Last week against a miserable Tampa Bay team Washington put up less than 150 yards of total offense. If they don't have a 150 yards by halftime of this game they are done. Seattle is the class of the NFC and while they have been shaky at best in the playoffs in recent years I see that trend turning around today. Sean Alexander is arguably the best player in football this year and Matt Hasselbeck (though balding at an alarming rate) is the finest QB in the NFC, that alone should be enough to beat a mediocre Redskins team. Throw in some homefield advantage, a bye week, a banged up Clinton Portis, and Mark Brunell at QB and this looks like a blowout. The only chance the Redskins have is to get Portis going to control the clock and then hope for a big play on defense, preferably resulting in a touchdown. Otherwise this is Seattle all the way. Pick: Seattle by 18.


Panthers at Bears: After the 1986 Super Bowl I wish nothing but misery on the Chicago Bears. That being said they have had a fantastic season, especially defensively. Unfortunately most of the keys to playoff victory side with Carolina.

1. Quarterback, I don't like Jake Delhomme much but I like him a heck of a lot better than Rex Grossman who has thrown for 259 yards and 1 touchdown on the season and has never started a playoff game. Delhomme has played in a Super Bowl and will not be rattled by the Chicago crowd.

2. Experience, maybe this should be number 1. In the playoffs experience in playing for your life counts for a lot. The Bears simply don't have any, the Panthers as I said have been to a Super Bowl.

3. Coaching, take nothing away from Lovie Smith but what he did this year in Chicago was partly a product of a lousy division in a lousy conference and a few lucky bounces. John Fox is a defensive genius who almost came up with enough to beat the Pats in the Super Bowl 2 years ago. It won't take a genius to stop Rex Grossman and Thomas Jones.

4 Playmakers, the Panthers have the playmaker of the year in Steve Smith, the Bears have Mushin Muhammed, advantage Smith.

That all adds up to Carolina having the edge. The big factor I'm not considering here is obviously the homefield advantage of the Bears. Soldier Field has always been a tough place to play. I'm not sure what the weather will be like today but if I had to guess I would say it's cold and windy which plays to the Bears advantage. If the Panthers had a distinct edge in 2 or even 3 of the key playoff categories I would say that the homefield balances it out for the Bears, but they won't be able to overcome all 4. Pick: Panthers by 7.


Steelers at Colts: (Sigh...) I just don't know. The Patriots fan in me wants to say that the Steelers can win this game. The logical sports observer (who lives very deeply buried) in me wants to say that they have no chance. Oh hell with it, since when do I listen to that logical voice anyway. Pittsburgh has a chance if 2 things happen, and I'm not exactly going out on a limb here. 1. Indy comes out flat and rusty and is unable to move the ball with the precision that they normally do, i.e. only scoring once in their first 3 possessions. This is a distinct possibility, I don't care how good you are through 13 weeks of the regular season 5 weeks without a meaningful game is an awfully long time. 2. They run run run all day long. They need to keep the ball and keep the clock moving. On the road you always want to play the shortest game possible, on the road in Indy you want a veritable time machine to rush you through the game. Jerome Bettis needs to be that time machine, gashing 4 to 6 yard runs regularly. While the Colts defense is much improved they still are not particularly punishing or physical, Bettis is. If he can hit them right in the mouth from the opening gun and keep D-Caf on the sidelines the Steelers could be able to hang around.

The problem is no matter how long you hold the ball you eventually have to give it back, and if you give it back to the Colts more than 8 times you lose. Their offense is absolutely incredible when it's clicking and the Pittsburgh defense is weak on the corners, which is exactly where Manning loves to attack. I'm rooting with all my might for the Steelers, but I just don't see it. Pick: Colts by 10.