Friday, January 13, 2012

I'm nervous about the 49ers having to face the Saints this weekend, what can you tell me that will reassure me?

Fear not pretty lady, it's going to be okay.

The Saints are utterly unstoppable under two circumstances...

At home.

And on turf.

Luckily for you, this game is in San Francisco and on grass. If the 49ers are smart, don't turn it over, and don't fall behind they should be able to at least keep it close and low-ish scoring.

The model to beat an offensive juggernaut has been shown (often agonizingly) time and again. As I said in the previous post, teams just need to watch the '07 Super Bowl and that's the blueprint. Another good example is what the Steelers did to the Patriots earlier this year.

Nobody talks about this but they ran down the play clock to almost zero on every offensive snap, which shortened the game enormously and kept Brady on the bench for an outrageous amount of time. Everyone looks at the time of possession and assumes that Pittsburgh dominated, but really they had two ridiculously dominating drives to start the game and then starting sitting on the ball.

If the 49ers can somehow get ahead they can do the same thing. Another positive is that the Saints defense is nothing to get excited about. They should be able to score. They can't get into a shootout with NO, but they don't need this game to be in the teens to win, 20's would be nice.

Lastly, the Niners don't turn it over anymore like they used to. Giving the Saints a short field is suicide. If they can keep hold onto the ball and keep it away from Brees they'll be in decent shape.

Now don't get me wrong, I don't think there's any question that the Saints are good enough offensively to score at will if they get into a rhythm. They are. Ask Marino's record.

Which is why it's so critical that the 49ers control the clock and the ball. More important even than scoring, they have to keep Brees off the field. A 70 yard bomb does very little for San Francisco because New Orleans will probably come out and score in two plays on the next possession.

If you're looking for further assurance I think SF also has the better coach. Harbaugh will realize that they need to slow things down and play the entire game as though they have a lead and they're trying to run out the clock with two minutes left. They also have a better kicker, which will be helpful if the wind picks up.

And if all else fails you can always rely on the trusty right arm of....Alex Smith!?! (....I know....is phony major...)

No comments: