The Celtics are in big trouble.
Unfortunately I think the positive impact of the shortened season on an older team like Boston has been somewhat exaggerated and it does not mask a multitude of other problems they will need to overcome.
First, 66 games is still a lot of games for old legs. It's not as though the entire Celtics roster was healthy last season with the exception of the final 16 games. If the season were 35 games I would see a huge impact for this team but 66 games is still plenty of time to wear down battered knees.
Perhaps more damaging than an 82 game regular season will be the unique scheduling requirements of this season. In order to squeeze in 66 games teams will have to play far more back-to-backs and other challenging game sequences that will force coaches of older teams to make roster decisions that may result in tanking games to save legs.
Take the Celtics schedule starting next week:
| Wed 11 | vs Dallas  |
| Fri 13 | vs Chicago |
| Sat 14 | @ Indiana |
| Mon 16 | vs Oklahoma City |
| Wed 18 | vs Toronto |
| Fri 20 | vs Phoenix |
| Sun 22 | @ Washington |
| Mon 23 | vs Orlando |
| Thu 26 | @ Orlando |
| Fri 27 | vs Indiana |
That's 10 games in 16 days including three back-to-backs. They start February with seven games in 12 days and March with seven games in 11 days. I just don't believe that the wear-down on their older players is going to be much less than a full season given the condensed scheduling.
Still, if they were the same team from '09-'10 and '10-'11 I would still feel fairly confident about a deep playoff run... But they're not. Not even close.
Last year at this time their starting center was Kendrick Perkins, not my favorite Celtic by any means but a serviceable NBA player. Last night their starting center was Greg Stiemsma. (Don't even ask me how to pronounce it...) They were rejected by Chris Paul and David West this off season (players that ended up with the Clippers and Pacers respectively, ouch). Brandon Bass is probably their best reserve player, but really he's their 5th starter because they don't have a center. Jermaine O'Neal and Marquis Daniels are now playing roles that are both a step or two forward on the depth chart than they were last year and neither is measurably better and O'Neal is probably worse.
It's not all doom and gloom, their first four (Big 3 + Rondo) are still as good as any in the league, but their second unit is going to get demolished and unfortunately regardless of that demolition they're going to have to play big minutes as a result of the scheduling.
So here's how I see this playing out in the best case scenario. After the schedule was released Rivers sat down with the Big 3 and the coaching staff and they picked games to cross off from the start as acceptable L's. For example this month they play on the 4th, 6th, 11th, 13th, and then on the 14th (after a home game the night before) they travel to Indiana to play a young athletic Pacers team on the road. This is probably going to be a loss anyway so they'll put KG (and/or any other banged up veteran) in street clothes and play a deeper rotation. Obviously the players they put out there will try to win but if they lose it's alright, it's part of the plan.
In the East, with a 66 game season, they need to probably go a few games over .500 to stay in the top half of the playoff standings and be able have home court in the first round. I think the idea will be to do just enough to land that seed and to be as fresh as possible even if it means losing a few road games at the end of a game-off-game-game stretch 'by accident'.
I would love to see them make roster moves to improve their depth and their size but unless it comes via trade it's going to be very difficult. They don't have any cap space to sign one of the guys stuck in China and as I said they already got shot down by two of the premier players that were 'available' (ish) during the off season.
But if we're being realistic it's not going to matter this time. They had their chance to beat the Heat last year and unfortunately I don't think that chance is coming around again...
No comments:
Post a Comment