Fair warning, I've been away from consistent ESPN coverage and free time for the last week, if any of this is completely wrong I cannot be held accountable...
We'll start with the NFC...
If I'm a Packers fan this week I'm scared to death. We've seen this movie before with the Giants and it doesn't end well for the other side... Please excuse me while I go plunge my head into the toilet several times....
(Plunge!) ...GASP!....(Plunge!)
Okay, I feel better. Now I will make myself feel worse by pointing out all the similarities between this season's version of the Giants/Packers and the 2007 versions.
In 2007 everyone wanted the Packers to make it to the Super Bowl so gunslinger Brett Favre could face off against the undefeated Patriots. It was like a marketer and casual fan's wet dream. Not a single person in the entire country would have rooted for the Patriots outside of those pockets of Pat's Nation in every city. We all know how that ended in overtime for the Packers and what ultimately took place...
(PLUNGE!)
In 2011 everyone wants to see the track meet that would be the Saints and Packers facing off again. That was the best game of the season and it was played on the very first Thursday. Another popular match-up that only requires a Packer win (on their side)? Not a good sign.
In 2007 the Patriots had what most assumed would be an unstoppable offense...
(Plunge!)
In 2011 the Packers seem to have an unstoppable offense. The scary thing to Packers' fans is that the Giants seem to have a blueprint for stopping unstoppable teams. They beat the Patriots on a neutral field in perfect weather in '07 by taking the air out of the ball, getting pressure without blitzing, and pounding Brady when given the chance. There isn't any reason they can't do that to Green Bay, particularly in (probably) lousy weather. Their pass rush is coming together at the right time, the Packers don't run the ball very well, and if they don't need to blitz to get to Rodgers they can cover long enough for him to get hit.
In 2007 Eli Manning stunk out loud and had a mediocre offense at best.
In 2011 Eli Manning is clutch and has Victor Cruz (...thanks for the fantasy championship Victor!).
As you can probably guess, I'm taking the Giants. This feels like a Colts circa '06 or '07 letdown game for Green Bay. That being said I hope to high hell that I'm wrong.
In the other game I actually like San Francisco, as much as I dread the potential texting repercussions from a certain Maynard especially if the Patriots were to lose... I'll get into this one more in the post that will be specifically about this game.
In the AFC you have two games that SHOULD be one-sided. Notice I said should.
Is it me or does Baltimore get more criticism than any other 12-4 number two seed in history? If you listened for three hours straight you would never hear anything good about them aside from their defense is experienced, but even with that people are starting to call them old. Granted they have had some terrible losses and can't win on the road but this game is in Baltimore and Houston is starting T.J. Yates who looked massively inferior to Andy Dalton last week.
Come on, I know Flacco is struggling but there is just no way that Yates can win there in the playoffs, is there? Once again I hope I'm wrong but a rookie quarterback on the road against Ray Lewis and Ed Reed. I don't care if Flacco stays in the parking lot, the Ravens are winning this game.
And now...
(Preparatory Plunge!) Gasp!
It's Tebow time....in that it's time to talk about Tebow.
Let me start by saying this, if the Patriots don't win this game it's time to blow it up. They haven't won a playoff game since the AFC championship game in 2007. Four years? Coaches get fired in the NFL for a lot less. Now, of course I'm not suggesting that you fire Bellichick...or am I?
Let's walk this through.
Since 2004 the defense has regressed markedly to the point that they are now the worst in the NFL.
Since the AFC championship game in '07 they have lost three consecutive playoff games, two at home to inferior opponents and one at a neutral site against a far inferior opponent. Note the absence of even a ROAD playoff game in the last four years! It's mind boggling, they haven't just lost, they've come unglued against inferior teams. That's just unacceptable.
Brady and Bellichick are both in the twilight of their careers. I'm not saying they're not trying as hard anymore but something has changed and it doesn't look like it's the quarterback. Brady still looks phenomenal, but there is something off about the way this team is constructed, like it's missing some key pieces and has been for a while. That falls to the guy who makes the draft picks and signings and that's BB.
Again, I'm not necessarily saying that you fire Bellichick, but it might be time to point out some lovely retirement mansions... IF they lose this game.
Back to the game itself. The Patriots should win, that's not news. They're just better. But if you're looking for things to keep yourself up at night here's one. There are three phases of a football game (offense, defense, special teams) and Denver is better in two of them. So the question is are the Patriots "better enough" on offense to compensate for being inferior on defense and special teams? The answer of course is yes, they've been doing it all year to better teams than Denver. But when you're not as good at 2/3 of the game you're very vulnerable to a bad day. So if you're looking for an anti-silver lining that's how they could lose, if the offense has a bad day.
Here's why I think it won't happen. Even if the offense has a bad day, which for them would be 24 points or so that should still be enough to win. It would have been for the Steelers if not for some flukey plays and an unbelievable TD to win the game.
Denver caught lightning in a bottle last week at home in front of a rabid crowd that hadn't seen a playoff game in almost a decade. All that atmosphere is flipping on them this week...
And lest we forget.... THEIR QUARTERBACK ISN'T ANY GOOD!
I would be more concerned about T.J. Yates, at least he can throw a spiral. Yes, Tebow looked good on Sunday, it was his best game as a pro by far. But what are the chances that a second year player, first year starter will be able to duplicate that success two weeks in a row against another good team but this time on the road? I don't see it happening.
So that leaves us Ravens at Patriots and Giants at Niners for the championship weekend when you WILL BE HERE IN COLORADO WITH ME to watch them!
I will preview those next week if they happen... Oh man I hope they happen.
No comments:
Post a Comment