Tuesday, December 20, 2011

Question Below

Do you think Indy's win over Tennessee (and any subsequent win) will be enough to save Caldwell's job? Was that job in jeopardy to begin with? Why or why not?

I don't think that Caldwell's job was ever in jeopardy, although it should be. In a strange twist the injury to Peyton Manning may have actually saved him for a year or even two. Logically, most fans and observers are assuming that the Colts are the worst team in football only because they lost Manning, I say that's just impossible.

(Now, to be fair I should disclaim that I am quite possibly the biggest Manning hater in the world. I can't stand anything that guy does and I think he's such a phony, pompous, media darling that actually chokes puppies and abuses his teammates when the cameras aren't rolling...)

Anyway, I say again, that's impossible. There is no way Manning makes up 10 wins himself. Everyone forgets, they weren't very good last year. They struggled to get to 10-6 and didn't do much to improve in the off-season. Everyone has reacted to this Colts season based on two faulty lines of thought. First, that this was still the Colts team of '05-'09 when they had one of the best offenses in football, it's not. Marvin Harrison isn't walking through that door and if he does he'll probably have a gun in his hand.

Second, people have such a selective memory about Manning that they forget that he wasn't particularly dominant last year. For some reason the media and some fans put the blinders on about this guy. He had 17 interceptions in 2010 against 33 touchdowns. Tom Brady had 36 touchdowns against only four interceptions. Aaron Rodgers had 28 and 11. Brady, Rodgers, Vick, and Roethlisberger all had QB ratings over 100, Manning's rating was just north of 90. Hall-of-Fame names like Schaub, Rivers, Flacco, and Freeman all had markedly better seasons than Manning in '10 in terms of QB rating, touchdown to interception ratio, and efficiency. Taking the 11th best quarterback (no joke check it out) in the NFL off of the Colts did not make them a one win team. I'm not suggesting that they wouldn't have been better with him, but there is very little chance that team makes the playoffs even with a healthy Manning.

Luckily for Caldwell hardly anyone agrees with me. He's going to get a completely free pass for this season from the fans and the media. Then when the Colts trade Manning to the Cowboys or 49ers next year so they can start Luck right away he will get another free pass because of his rookie QB.

So, with a healthy Manning and an 8-8 record Caldwell would probably be on a very hot seat right now, but because of the injury and the resultant zero-expectations his team is going to win one or two games and he'll be completely safe. And it's all because of selective memory and a gross distortion of Manning's value and the quality of the Colts team as a whole.

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