AL East Preview - 2006

It’s that time again, early April, when hope and worry both spring (although not eternal, but likely interminable) in New England and (as I said last year) our eyes are cast to the Death Star located several hundred miles to the south in the Bronx. It’s true, after such a seemingly short interval it is time yet again for another 162 game odyssey to decide the fate of the American League East.

For the past few years both teams have relied on the same mantra, hit until you are blue in the face. Yes pitching is important in the playoffs but to get there both the Red Sox and Yankees have relied on a steady diet of offensive firepower. This year things are different. The juxtaposition of the Bombers against the Sox is always sharp but this year there are distinctions that will shatter that into tiny unrecognizable shards.

For the first time in a long while the bitterest of rivals will take different paths to their ultimate success or failure. The Yankees will stick with the currently effective theory of blasting the cover off the ball. Their lineup is on paper the most fearsome of my lifetime and may be one of the best ever. The Red Sox on the other hand, while still remarkably formidable have lessened their chops on the offensive side of the ball while strengthening their defense up the middle and their pitching. To answer who will come out on top I give you the second annual AL East Preview.

LINEUP:
Okay, I’m going to say right off the bat that I hate to concede New York’s superiority over Boston in any sense aside from the quality of delis but I’m forced yet again to make an admission. The Yankee lineup is better. The Red Sox have a more frightening 3-4 punch with David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez, but top to bottom the Yanks are a nightmarish combination.

Going from position to position this is what it looks like. At first base the Red Sox will be starting their most well known prospect of the decade Kevin Youkilis. While familiarity with the name and a general feeling that he deserves a shot at playing everyday will give most Red Sox fans confidence the B-Slant isn’t sold on the kid just yet. For his career he has hit just .262 in 294 at bats with 8 homeruns and 44 RBI. It’s hard to make much out of numbers that have come from such limited playing time but my feeling is that if he were that good he would have been playing more, especially last year with Kevin Millar’s struggles. J.T. Snow will see some time there, especially if Youkilis falters and at least he is a solid veteran presence. The Bombers will counter with Jason Giambi last year’s Comeback Player of the Year. Once the face of the steroid controversy; Giambi silenced critics last season hitting .271 with 32 homeruns and 87 RBI. If he puts up numbers like that again the best the Sox can hope for is a wash. My feeling is the advantage is going to New York here.

At second base Boston will likely have one of its few edges over the Yankees in terms of offensive production. Robinson Cano could be a star eventually but in his second season I see a sophomore slump coming on. Last year as a rookie the pressure probably seemed minimal more or less because of ignorance. That will not be the case this time, everyone knows his name, no one will overlook him and he may falter. In comparison to the paltry contributions they got from their plethora of second basemen last year Mark Loretta’s career averages look like a delightful step forward for the Red Sox. A career .301 hitter with a proven track record of performance, Loretta seems unlikely to take a step backwards this year.

There is no debate at shortstop. Alex Gonzalez will play great defense but Derek Jeter is a Hall of Fame caliber player. If the Sox get .250, 4, and 45 from Gonzalez he will be an offensive success. Look for much more than that from Jeter.

Same story at third base. Mike Lowell took steroids. He is no longer taking them which is really too bad for Red Sox fans. A-Rod was not the MVP last year, but he won it anyway which means he had pretty good numbers despite his inability to hit in the clutch like his highway-robbed runner-up. While I think Lowell will improve on his .237 from a year ago he will never be in A-Rod’s league, ever.

Left field is contrast of styles. Manny and his smooth, textbook right handed swing against Hideki Matsui and his ugly Japanese style left handed hack. Each is effective in its own way. Last year’s numbers bear out the comparison. After a dreadful start Matsui thundered down the stretch to end the season at .305 with 23 homeruns and 116 RBIs. Manny had a down year in terms of average at only .292 but still came up with huge power numbers including 45 homeruns and 144 RBIs. If you were starting a team you would take both of these guys if you could but for my money Manny is better. Over the long haul he has a better swing and better strike zone coverage which will probably lead to higher production.

It’s hard to talk about this rivalry without touching on Benedict Arnold himself Johnny Damon. Say what you want about the hypocrisy of fans’ expectations in terms of athlete loyalty but Damon deserted Boston for the brighter spotlight and the bigger paycheck, period. While I think he’s a deplorable little slug for invoking the “Yankee tradition” before ever playing a game in pinstripes it’s undeniable that he is still one of the best leadoff hitters in the game. The Red Sox made the right move for the long term in getting younger, faster, and able-to-throw-like-a-man Coco Crisp but that improvement will take two or three years to show itself. At this stage of their careers Damon is still better at least in terms of experience playing under pressure and the ability to handle the spotlight. However, if Johnny’s shoulder continues to bother him and limits his ability to swing and throw the balance could easily shift in the Sox favor. As everyone knows Crisp’s numbers are nearly identical to Damon’s numbers when he came to the Red Sox four years ago. If he improves in the same marked way each year Boston will have made a brilliant move in signing a player on the rise while sending a declining veteran to the enemy. I hope we see signs of that this season. This dichotomy is one of the larger questions of the upcoming campaign and while I expect Damon to outperform Crisp I think the margin will be smaller than many think and like I said any injury to the 32 year old Damon could lean this into the positive for Red Sox nation.

In right field it’s the same old question for Boston. Will Trot Nixon stay healthy? We love Nixon here but in all honesty he has been a bust. He was the seventh overall pick in the 1993 draft and has been a “can’t miss” talent for his entire career; he is just unable to keep himself off of the DL for an entire season. If he can manage to do so he could put up numbers that will merit at least a reasonable comparison with Gary Sheffield, who hit .292 with 34 homeruns and 123 RBI in 154 games last season against Nixon’s .275, 13, and 67 in 124 games. Until Nixon (maybe combined with Willy Mo Pena) proves that he can make it thorough 150 games the edge at this spot goes to the Yanks.

At the designated hitter position the balance that was swung in favor of New York at shortstop and third base is swung in equal measure to the side of the Red Sox. David Ortiz does this better than anyone and ranks highly among the best clutch hitters in the game. In the 9th inning there is no one you would rather have at the plate, and for the first eight he isn’t bad either. Last season he hit an even .300 with 47 homeruns and 148 RBI. On their official web site the Yankees don’t even have a section for designated hitters. The most likely scenario is that it will be a platoon between “Weekend at Bernie’s” Williams and Jason Giambi (when Andy Phillips is at 1st base) with a host of others potentially filling in the gap. This is the only “no contest” in favor of Boston.

In terms of overall lineup potential there is little doubt that the Yankees have more pop. They should score a ton of runs and launch a ludicrous amount of homeruns. The question is whether they will be an effective lineup together or just the sum of their parts. The Red Sox need to be productive together to compete because the sum of their lesser talents (only in comparison with NY, the rest of the league with a few exceptions would love to have Boston’s lineup) will not be enough to carry the club as it has in the past. However, like I said before for the first time in a few years this offensive comparison will not be the overlying factor in who wins the East.

PITCHING:

Comparing the pitching staffs of the Red Sox and Yankees is like trying to answer test questions in another language, i.e. total guesswork. Unknowns abound on both sides.

At the top of each rotation, at least theoretically there is an aging veteran formerly of the Diamondbacks. Randy Johnson is coming off of a 17-8 season in which he carried a 3.79 ERA (and don’t forget he beat the Sox five times). Curt Schilling is coming off a fat / injury plagued season. Last year is one that I’m sure he’d rather forget as would we all. When Schilling is right he is better than Johnson, when he isn’t we don’t really know what he is. He seems healthy and slimmed down but to speculate on the health of nearly 40 year old pitchers in April is foolhardy at best. I’m calling this match-up a wash with a reasonable probability that it will lean in the favor of he Sox.

Similar story at the number two position for each club. Boston will march out their newest shiny toy Josh Beckett, a 25 year old hard throwing right hander who has proved two things without a doubt: he can win in Yankee stadium under pressure and he is very injury prone. The Yankees will counter with 37 year old Mike Mussina who has had his own injury issues over the past few seasons, most notably chronic back problems. If Beckett stays healthy and lives up to that .234 career opponents’ batting average the Sox will be a few steps ahead at this spot.

I see the final three spots in each rotation producing at a similar level. While there are differences aplenty between the trio of Shawn Chacon, Jaret Wright, and Chien-Ming Wang for NY and Boston’s Tim Wakefield, David Wells, and Matt Clement the overall output should be about the same. That is to say 30-40 wins and a projected ERA in the mid to high fours. Changes will certainly take place in each group as Wells is unlikely to be with the team for the duration if he proves to be a valuable trade commodity and Chacon and Wang may suffer sophomore slumps and Wright’s health is hardly guaranteed.

In the starting rotation comparison the advantage is, in my mind, firmly with the Red Sox at the outset. If Schilling or Beckett go down or Clement falls apart in the second half again all bets are off but going into the year I like where Boston stands on the mound better.

In the bullpen things always begin, or I should say end with the closer. For the past decade no one in baseball has been able to hold a candle to the Yankees in that department, and while the Red Sox have had some success against Sandman I won’t be holding my breath for Keith Foulke to out-duel Mariano Rivera on a regular basis. Foulke is probably the third biggest question / concern for Red Sox fans after the health of Schilling and Beckett and his physical well-being is only one part of the equation. After the nightmare he suffered through last year, including the abuse from the fans, the media, and his teammates it would be ridiculous to assume that he is coming into this campaign with a full set of marbles mentally. His confidence is surely on a tenuous balance and if he gets off to a slow start that will only get worse, not to mention how quickly the Red Sox faithful will turn on him. If he doesn’t produce however, all is not lost. Jonathan Papelbon could be there to save the day and begin his Red Sox legacy. Deep down inside every Red Sox fan is at least somewhat hoping for this, we won’t admit it but we’ve all given up on Foulke as the answer and are looking for something better. The grapefruits and talent that Papelbon showed last year indicated that he could be that solution.

The other question for me regarding Boston’s bullpen is the age and durability of Mike Timlin. I know questioning Timlin’s ability to eat innings is like doubting Star Jones’ love of cheeseburgers but at 40 years of age it’s a legitimate concern. He was ineffective in the World Baseball Classic and seemed to have a bit of a dead arm, if that carries into the season he could leave a large void (something like 81 appearances large) for the rest of the staff to fill.

The Yankees on the other hand lost their version of Timlin with Tom Gordon heading out of town. Filling that void in New York will not be a one man show. The role will initially go to the psychotic Australian Kyle Farnsworth with lefty help coming from ex-Sox reliever Mike Myers. Tanyon Sturtze still sucks (or maybe I just hate him) and aside from his numbers (56 games 5.91 ERA 76 hits in 70 innings) I don’t know a thing about Scott Proctor. After Rivera nothing is really jumping out at me on this list as remarkably reliable.

The complimentary guys in the Sox bullpen aren’t awe inspiring either but I feel slightly better about their chances to be solid contributors. Julian Tavarez will probably hurt his pitching hand punching something hard because he’s as dumb as a bag of hammers but when he’s on the mound he has good career stats (642 games, 4.33 ERA, 626 strikeouts) although all of that was in the Norris Division (NL). David Riske also looks alright on paper, coming into Boston with a career 3.59 ERA and American League experience. Rudy Seanez is someone about whom I know almost nothing despite the fact that he pitched in 9 games for the Red Sox in 2003. (He did?) However, last year in 54 games his ERA was a very solid 2.69 and he only gave up 18 earned runs and struck out 84 in 60.1 innings for the Padres. Even if he adds a little onto that because of the switch to the major leagues…I mean AL (sorry I keep slamming the NL like this but they just don’t hit as well) he should still be pretty valuable out there.

The biggest weakness I see for the Sox in terms of relief is the lack of a proven left hander. Lenny DiNardo, (despite being involved in one of my favorite, “Oh shit back the camera up a little,” moments with Johnny Pesky during the ’04 ring ceremony when the grizzled Pesky audibly muttered “DiNardo you son a bitch!” as he passed him in the handshake line) is probably not going to be a Myers-like option. Everyone else out there is right handed. That means with Matsui up and the bases loaded in the seventh we basically have nowhere to go. That will become an issue at some point.

That being said I still think overall the Sox edge the Yankees again in terms of complimentary relievers. So where does that leave us?

Well oddly enough this season there is actually another team in the AL East that might merit a look. The Toronto Blue Jays were one of the most active clubs in the off season and seem poised to cause some ruckus in that hideous dome they have up there. Their lineup is stacked with solid talent like Troy Glaus, Eric Hinske, Vernon Wells, Reed Johnson, Frank Catalanotto, and Bengie Molina. On the hill they added A.J. Burnett to former Cy Young Award winner Roy Halladay and Red Sox killer Ted Lilly forming a very solid top three at the head of their rotation. They also have flamethrower B.J. Ryan and Scott Schoeneweis anchoring down the bullpen. On paper that should be plenty to compete.

But in the end it won’t be. They made some nice moves but like the Orioles last year they will be gone by the middle of August. If they’re in it at the trading deadline they might be a piece or two away from hanging in until the end, but that doesn’t seem likely to me.

So what it will come down to AGAIN is the 19 games that the Sox and Yanks will play against each other, as it has for the past one billion years (I guess it only seems that long). For the last eight the Bombers have walked away with the AL East crown. I think that ends this year. They have mortgaged themselves out too far in terms of age and unreliable arms. Sure, if Johnson and Mussina return to peak form and Chacon and Wang hold themselves up to last year’s unlikely standards the division should be theirs. I really don’t see that happening though. This team can trot out 8 potential All-Stars in their everyday lineup but within that 8 they also play a half dozen potential season crippling injury victims (oh God in heaven let it be Damon that goes down first).

Earlier in the off season I thought that the Red Sox had taken a few large steps backwards, now I think differently. Basically they swapped Johnny Damon now for Johnny Damon a few years ago with a manly throwing motion and better wheels. They traded Edgar Renterria and his flat .270 and 30 errors for one of the best defensive shortstops in the league. They ditched the village idiot Kevin Millar for potential and a veteran in Youkilis and Snow. They upgraded their staff with one of the most pressure proven young arms in baseball and added bull pen depth. This is a better team than last year so while I said above that the Yankees out slam the Red Sox at almost every position I believe that Boston pulls it all together to make the better all around squad, and that is much more important than being just the sum of your very expensive parts. Ask last year’s White Sox. NY will win some games 18-3 and it will be impressive, but at the end of the day I think Brian Cashman would trade those results for the 2-1 victories the Red Sox will be hanging up on a regular basis.

PREDICTION:RED SOX: 96-66
Yankees: 92-70
Blue Jays: 81-81
Devil Rays: 80-82
Orioles: 75-87