Am I taking crazy pills?
What the hell were they thinking?
I'm starting to feel as though the only way you can realistically evaluate Boston College sports is to be an alum and watch the games. Clearly no one in the college basketball or football worlds does this. How, after watching these teams routinely lay down in front of inferior competition and get blown out by superior competition can anyone in their right mind rank them among the tops in the nation?
Not only did BC football climb as high as number 13 this year (only to show their stripes and their inept coaching against North Carolina) but their basketball team is ranked pre-season 11th. And if that wasn't enough Craig Smith, a shorter and blacker Greg Ostertag, was named a pre-season first team All American. How, how, how? Does anyone remember watching this team get run over like a deer on route 81 against Pittsburgh last year? Did anyone watch their tournament game against 12th seeded Wisconsin - Milwaukee? Is anyone aware that Sean Williams, probably the best defensive player on BC's roster is suspended indefinitely? And most importantly did the entire world go to sleep and forget that this team, led by Smith and ... is now playing in the ACC against Duke (1), Maryland (24), Wake Forest (18), North Carolina (defending national champions), and a host of other programs home to impossible places to win on the road?
Obviously Smith is a good player, but who else do they have to help him when he is doubled and shut down? Jared Dudley? Louis Hinnant? Come on, let's be serious here. The 20-0 start by the Eagles last year was an aberration aided by a weak early season schedule and a couple of good wins. They essentially snuck up on everyone and took teams by surprise. They will not be doing that this year. With 4 starters returning they have basically the same team that finished ranked 19th last season eliminating any mystery about them from the start.
Even more shocking than their ranking is Smith's selection to the All-American first team. At 18.0 points and 8.0 rebounds a game last season Smith had solid numbers and deserved his first team all Big East commendation. He may even deserve his first team All ACC selection this year, but to consider him one of the 2 best front court players in the NCAA is just absurd. First of all, he's only 6'7" so without Sean Williams in the middle he won't command the interior and at his height it will be difficult for him to maneuver through heavy traffic as the only inside force. Secondly, with all the attention he got after the season last year he will be the target of every opponent's defense. They will be keying on him more than ever before and I don't think that he has the skills, the poise, or the supporting cast to handle the pressure of being a top tier player. Finally, there are other players that deserve to be on the first team more than he does. Rudy Gay from Connecticut is a legitimate star with the tools to be a fist teamer, as is Justin Gray from Wake Forest, although he's a guard so that doesn't really apply. The point here is that we as BC fans know where this is going.
They'll probably start out strong (no worse than 5-1 against Dartmouth, Shawnee State, Buffalo, Drake, Oklahoma State / TCU, and Sacred Heart) but won't blow any of those teams out. They'll stay in low teens in the rankings. Smith will be averaging 16 points and 6 rebounds per game. Their defense will be stout (but not great without Williams) but their offense will be stagnant.
Then they'll play the top 5 worthy Michigan State team and get demolished by 30 on ESPN. They'll fall after that game to somewhere in the mid to high teens. Then 5 days later they'll lose to Maryland in a relatively close, boring game at Maryland and fall in the rankings to the high teens or low twenties. Smith will have one good and one awful game in those two, keeping his averages the same and showing the country that he was not worthy of the pre-season All American status.
Then they will win their next 5 (Texas Southern, Harvard, Duquesne, Rhode Island, and UMass) with at least one very close scare. That will put their record at around 10-3 heading into conference play with their ranking sitting in the neighborhood of 15.
Of their final 17 they have 2 guaranteed non-conference wins (Holy Cross, Stony Brook). Within the conference they have 6 games they should win (2 against Miami, 2 against Virginia Tech, 1 against Clemson, 1 against Florida State). Let's give them 5 of those, assuming that there will be a slip-up somewhere along the way. That puts their record at 17-4.
Now it gets interesting. They will lose to Duke, now they're at 17-5. They will likely split the series with Georgia Tech, 18-6. Give them another split with NC State and they're at 19-7. An interesting matchup could take place on January 25th at UNC. Nobody knows what to expect from the Tar Heels this year having lost most of their championship team to the NBA. However, Roy Williams at home against Al Skinner is like Belichick at home against Dave Wannstedt, no comparison, UNC takes that one to push BC to 19-8.
Now I've left 2 games on the schedule as the highlight "BCgate" games of the season. Every season since I've been associated with BC sports there have been games that have epitomized BC's failures. Huge games against either comparable or inferior competition that have kept them mired in mediocrity and have stripped me of my confidence in them. The first of these games will be at Wake Forest on February 8th. Since the beginning of conference play BC should be at this point somewhere in the area of 16-6 giving them wins at home and losses on the road in their split series. Looking at Wake's schedule they should be around the same level, maybe a little bit better. Their rankings should be similar. The game is on ESPN. Do I even need to draw out this picture for you? They will inevitably lay an egg in this game, similar to the Pitt game last season and if they get blown out their national status will take a huge hit, just like it did last year.
If by some miracle this does not become BCgate, my name for everytime they fail to show up in a big (or even random) game for no reason at all, then we will move to game number 2 which might fit my theory even better. February 21st at Virginia. Virginia is one of two whipping boys in the ACC hoops world. They get beat on regularly by the big boys but usually steal one at home from a top contender (last year they beat Duke). This game will be the Syracuse (football), Pittsburgh, Wisconsin - Milwaukee, North Carolina (football) for this season. If the Eagles get past the Wake Forest game they could conceivably be 20-6 coming in to Charlottesville and could be ranked in the top 18 or so. Even before they play any of the games this looks like it could be the one that makes all of us shake our heads and say, "typical BC." Highly ranked but under achieving BC comes into Virginia and gets beat by 7, never really mounting a charge until 11 minutes left in the second half and by then it is too late for their meager offense led by freshman guard/forward (insert random player who shows up for this one game here) and his 4 second half threes.
They'll lose, fall to 19th, finish the season 20-9, get a 5 seed, and lose in the first round to this year's Wisconsin-Milwaukee.
Craig Smith will average his 16 an 6, the numbers will be down from last year due to the extra attention and the stiffer competition. He'll be second team All ACC and everyone who voted him a pre-season All-American will look at BC grads like us and say, "We should have known."
It's just sad that you KNOW that this is going to happen. It's like knowing that Cody Pickett is going to find away to give the Giants a chance to win last week, or knowing that Bledsoe will go color blind on Parcells and cost the Cowboys a playoff berth at some time this year.
Some things are inevitable, BC sports are merely predictable.
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