Peyton's Year?

After midnight on Monday will Peyton Manning be wearing his traditional, "I can't believe I lost to New England AGAIN! God everyone on this team but me SUCKS!" face or his Shermanator, "It was just time time, it was just my time," face?

I'm afraid that it just might actually be his time. But let's review. The Colts are 7-0 and the Pats are 4-3. The Colts are remarkably healthy and have not played a decent team in their first 7, the Pats are nicked up all over the place and have played 6 playoff teams in their first 7. The Colts are coming off of a bye week, the Pats are a brutal Sunday night game removed from their bye. The deck certainly seems stacked in the favor of the Colts, but don't start the parade down Main Street Indianapolis just yet.

While this game actually doesn't mean that much to the Colts, they are 2 games ahead in the race for homefield with a further cupcake schedule the rest of the way, it's the biggest game of the year in Peyton Manning's mind. Do you think he wants to endure any more montages of his failures in New England, or answer any more questions about why he can't beat Bill Belichick? He is so psychologically damaged by his inablity to win here that it would not surprise me at all to see him lay down on Monday night.

The problem is that this year, even if he predictably lays down there are other players on his cast that can pick him up. Unlike previous visits he has a running game that is torching the league and keeping his fantasy stats down (damn you Edgerrin James!) and a defense this is much improved although untested against legitimate competition on the road. So theoretically it shouldn't matter much if Manning lays an egg because according to "the experts" this is the most balanced Colts team of their recent run. They should win anyway.

The X factor, as always in these matchups is the game plan. Bill Belichick will certainly have some wrinkles in his defense this week, including an increased role for Tedy Bruschi, and there is no doubt in my mind that the Patriots offense will be able to move the ball. But will it be enough?

Everything on paper says no but you cannot discount the Belichick factor and the Manning choke factor. Say what you will but the Patriots own him at home and even while they're down that has to count for something. However, at best that ownership only brings the Patriots chances up to 50/50. Sean Salisbury has learned his lesson. After 2 weeks of prophesizing aboout how the Colts were going to come into New England and destroy the Patriots in the AFC Divisional game last year, only to eat a huge plate of crow, he has learned to never pick against them in this matchup until Manning proves otherwise. I will do the same.

If Manning proves that he can win in New England then it will be the third curse broken in the last 13 months. If not I will laugh and laugh all the way to Peyton's televised meltdown where he gets in a slap fight with Marvin Harrison and then backs over Reggie Wayne with his car in the parking lot, only to go home and sit in his Ray Finkle-style bedroom with Tom Brady's picture all over the walls and the phrase, "at New England" written in pigs blood on the ceiling.

My pick: Pats by 3 in overtime.