AL East...Again...

Yes boys and girls, it's that time again, time to start looking 200 or so miles to the south at the broken Death Star in the Bronx, home of the former Evil Empire. It's not even April and yet here we are 5 days, 1 hour and 12 minutes away from the first offical pitch between the Sox and Yanks since the biggest choke in sports history was culminated at Yankee stadium 5 months ago. Doesn't it seem like just yesterday? I'm not sure I'm ready yet for the emotional investment necessary to watch the Sox in Yankee Stadium with Randy Johnson on the hill. But it doesn't matter if I'm ready because it's coming anyway.

So here we go with an AL East preview...

Let's be honest, the Yankees are loaded and if they don't win the division it will be because they underachieved. They are, on paper, superior to the Sox on both sides of the ball.

Randy Johnson, Mike Mussina, Jared Wright, Kevin Brown and Carl Pavano are theoretically better than Schilling, Pedro...oh right..., David Wells, Matt Clement, Tim Wakefield, and Bronson Arroyo. This is especially underscored by the fact that Wells and Clement have been rocked this spring with Wells giving up 10 earned runs in his last 12 innings and Clement touting a heavy 5.54 ERA in the pitcher friendly Grapefruit League where most sluggers are just working on contact and timing. And of course I don't need to tell anyone that the Sox ace will be out about a month. Wade Miller will add stability and push one of these 5 (probably Wakefield) to the pen in June, but that's a long way off.

However, the Yankee rotation is not without question either. Kevin Brown (10-6, 4.09 ERA) will probably get hurt because, well he always gets hurt. Mussina was lights out in the playoffs against the Sox but don't forget his struggles last season (12-9, 4.59 ERA). Randy Johnson (16-14, 2.60 ERA) will still be a force but he has been mired in the DH free light hitting NL West for the past few seasons and what he'll put up against the best power division in baseball remains to be seen. Not to mention you never know how someone who has never pitched under the brightest lights in sports, the bulbs of the New York media, like Pavano (18-8, 3.00 ERA) or Wright (15-8, 3.28 ERA) will respond to the constant pressure.

In the bullpen the advantage is actually with the Sox once you get past Rivera. And to be honest, I think it's finally fair and honest to say that the Sox own Rivera, at least as much as you can own one of the best closers ever. He's blown more playoff saves in his career to the Sox than he has to every other team combined, and that says something. Of course Keith Foulke is no slouch in his own right and that matchup comes out close to a wash anyway. After the closer the biggest advantage the Sox have is Allen Embree (2-2, 4.13 ERA), meaning a reliable left handed reliever which the Yanks are sorely missing. They reacquired Mike Stanton (3-6, 3.16 ERA in 83 games) who will be a question mark at best and beyond him their only other lefty is Alex Graman...exactly. Mike Timlin (5-4, 4.13 ERA) will once again be the horse of the Sox staff, and much of their success will rest on his performance. Similarly the Yanks will look to Tom Gordon (9-4, 2.21 ERA)to repeat his stellar season from a year ago. John Halama (7-6, 4.70 ERA) will bring another left handed arm to the Red Sox pen, but what they will get from him will likely be in the Stanton class. Matt Mantai and Mike Myers will swing the balance towards the Sox over Tanyon Sturtze, Paul Quantrill, and Steve Karsay.

On both sides there are also guys Sox and Yanks fans just don't want to see coming out of the bullpen in tight situations. For the Sox it's obvious, we don't ever want to see Byung-Hyun Kim ever again. He is the scurge of the pitching staff and it is the unending folly of the Red Sox front office that keeps him on the roster. For the Yanks, Felix Rodriguez strikes the same fear. On paper his numbers look good but situationally he's a nightmare.

Offensively the Yankees are modern day Bronx Bombers and even though the Sox led the league in runs scored the Yankees seem to have a clear advantage in terms of pop. Position by position it looks like this.

At first base New York has two potentially solid options with Jason Giambi, now off the juice, and the ageless Tino Martinez. Both COULD put up big numbers, Giambi especially, and he needs to in order to save his career. Martinez is 37 and only hit .262 last season but managed 23 homers and 76 RBIs on a terrible team. For Boston Kevin Millar will be the everyday guy with Kevin Youkilis likely backing up both first and third base. Red Sox fans love Millar, but we love him more than he deserves. .294 18 HR and 74 RBI are solid but should be eclipsed by the combination of Giambi and Martinez. D.O. may see some time over there as well, but he really does not count as a defender even when he's wearing a glove.

At second Mark Bellhorn will easily out power Tony Womack but he will be outpaced by Womack's average and speed. This comparison is essentially a toss up, if Bellhorn plays decent defense I'd rather have the 18 HR than Womack's 26 steals, especially in lineups that are constantly swinging for the long ball.

Shortstop is a touchy subject around here. Word on the street is the Yankees have some kid named Jeter who's decent at wacking it around, especially in the clutch. Former Cardinal, now the Sox replacement for Orlando Cabrera, Edgar Renteria can hit a little bit at .287 10 HR and 72 RBI but Jeter is a hall of famer who had a down year at .292 23 HR and 78 RBI, I can't see that happening again, even in my wildest dreams.

Things stay pretty bleak at third base. A-Rod, while probably the most obnoxious pompus ass this side of Barry Bonds, is still one of the best in the game and I fully expect another .296, 36, and 106 from him. (Haha...remember that slap play...oh that was great...the look on his face..."What! What did I do? Hey I'm freakin' A-Rod!") Bill Mueller will put up numbers and hopefully he'll play more than 110 games, but it'll be hard for even the combination of him and Youkilis to stack up. Look for Youkilis to have a monster year if Mueller goes down, he's ready to blow up.

Around the outfield things get a little more interesting. In left there's only one guy you would rather have than Manny Ramirez, and he plays in San Francisco. .308, 43, and 130 are huge numbers and Manny was flat robbed out of the MVP last year. Matsui is no Bubba Crosby but he just cannot hang with Ramirez at .298, 31, and 108.

In center Bernie Williams is 111 years old (okay 36, 37 in September) and not the player he once was. Johnny Damon needs to stop writing books and start playing baseball. Damon at .304, 20, and 94 had a case for MVP himself coming out of the leadoff spot. Those are unheard of numbers from the top of the order and if he comes close to those again he will blow Williams out of the water with his .262, 22, and 70. Not to mention Damon still has wheels and then some and is simply playing a much better overall game at this stage in his career.

In right Trot Nixon is a question mark having only played in 48 games last season and he has still not blossomed into the All-Star his draft status projected. However, Gary Sheffield is not completely left out of the steroid talks and with that lingering about if he gets off to a slow start the pressure could begin to mount. Regardless the advantage goes to the Yanks here, Sheffield's .290, 36, and 121 are better than Nixon's potential.

Behind the plate both teams have studs. Statistically Varitek at .296, 18, and 73 and Posada at .272, 21, and 81 are essentially even. Intangibles make the difference here and in that department Varitek gets a huge edge. A case can be made that he saved the entire season and sparked the post season run with his Plantation Street style bitch slap of A-Rod in the game that Bill Mueller ultimately won with a home run off of Rivera in the bottom of the 9th. Maybe I sound like a homer here but there isn't anyone, except maybe Pudge, that I would rather have as half my battery than Varitek. The Yankees have leaders but on or off the field Jorge the goofy Gonzo look-alike is no Jeter.

Now to the paragraph I've been waiting to write this whole time. The DH comparison. Well, there really is no comparison. David Ortiz v. 40 year old Ruben Sierra. D.O.'s 2004 stats are just insane for what they paid for him .301, 41, 139 and he was no doubt the clutch man in the playoff run. He's got to be one of the most feared hitters in the AL, especially among left handers. Sierra is a joke in comparison, .244, 17, and 65. While the Yanks have an edge in many of the positions none are is dramatic as this, and even if it's not Sierra whoever they trot out can't rake with D.O.

Defensively neither of these teams are going to wow you with their Gold Glovers, but ask the Devil Rays how having the best defense in the AL East has worked out for them so far. Neither Millar or Giambi will ever be confused with Doug Mientkiewicz, Womack can run circles around Bellhorn but Renteria is better than the mishap prone Jeter. A-Rod will be the best fielder on either team, especially with a year under his belt at third, but Mueller is no liability. In the outfield Johnny Damon is among the best in the game in terms of range although he has no arm whatsoever. Williams is over the hill and cannot get to nearly as many balls as he used to. Manny sometimes looks like a blind drunk on roller skates but generally he makes the plays, Matsui is comparable. In right Trot Nixon plays as hard as anyone and has the best arm on the Sox, but Sheffield has a cannon and some to spare. Varitek and Posada are both among the best at blocking balls and managing pitchers, although neither throw out a huge percentage of runners attempting to steal. All in all these teams stack up very evenly defensively and truth be told, the long haul of this AL East campaign is not going to be decided by who throws the most leather.

In terms of utility guys it's basically a blindfolded dart toss, you never know what you are going to get. I like the youth of the Sox with Youkilis, Adam Stern, and Hanley Ramirez (who will start the year in the minors but you'll see him soon) against the Yanks Rey Sanchez, Felix Escalona, Bubba Crosby, and Andy Phillips. Look for someone on this list to have to step in for an injury at some point on both teams. If I'm the Red Sox I love the idea of Youkilis as a spot fill in versus the options in the Yankee camp.

So after all that where do we stand? Well the problem with prognosticating baseball is that they have to play the games, all 162 of them, and as we all know, anything can happen.

I'd love to tell you that I think the Sox will win the division, but honestly I don't. Unless Schilling can repeat last season even with his bum ankle and Wells and Clement can make up for the loss of Pedro and then some I just can't see the Sox taking it in the end. However, if just a single thing goes wrong for the Yankees (i.e. Johnson, Jeter, Sheffield, or A-Rod go down, etc.) the balance could swing the other way. Make no mistake, both teams will be in it until the end, and the margin will be less than 5 games, and most importantly they are both going to the playoffs. And as recent history has taught us, being the Wild Card isn't necessarily a bad thing.

If you're looking for an X-factor here it is. The Baltimore Orioles. They will pound the ball all over the yard this year with Sosa, Lopez, and company and if they can find someone to get some people out they could make some noise. Both the Yanks and the Sox have to play them 19 times, and the record against the O's should be telling as to who will come out on top.

FINAL STANDINGS:
YANKEES 101-61
RED SOX 99-63
ORIOLES 85-77
DEVIL RAYS 70-92
BLUE JAYS 62-100