The following people are hereby deemed irrevocably stupid:
- Shawne Merriman: for chanting, "Brady sucks!" at a Chargers rally last week, as well as predicting a comeback by the Jets in their Wild Card game in Foxboro, and don't forget about juicing.
- Roosevelt Colvin: for being the catalyst for much of this post-game stupidity by yelling, "Lights out!" into the Chargers locker room after the game.
- Nate Harper: for being the guy to say the wrong thing just days before his team takes the field. "Yes I think we are in Tom Brady's head."
- Sean Salisbury: for everything.
- Jack Del Rio: for picking the Colts even though his team killed them in the regular season and then got killed by the Patriots at home.
- Jack Del Rio: for using the entire can of hair gel.
- Bill Simmons: for suggesting that the Patriots are the Yankees of the NFL. Here's why:
Yankees: largest payroll ever ever ever ever ever.
Patriots: 15 million under the salary cap.
Yankees: 0 world championships since 2000.
Patriots: 3 world championships since 2000.
Yankees: A-Rod.
Patriots: Ahhh....well Vinatieri missed on kick in Denver last year, does that qualify?
Yankees: at best, the sum of their parts.
Patriots: the consummate team.
Yankees: sign/steal the biggest name free agents available.
Patriots: turn low round draft picks into solid contributors.
Yankees: George Steinbrenner and Brian Cashman.
Patriots: Bob Kraft and Scott Pioli.
If anyone over the last six years has been the Yankees of the NFL it's the Colts. I don't even need to make the Peyton Manning / Alex Rodriguez comparison in terms of regular season production versus a lack thereof in the playoffs. They're both the highest profile teams in their leagues with a roster loaded with big names and flashy statistics, including the biggest free agent acquisition of last summer (Vinatieri) and it's amounted to nothing. They have an impressive streak of divisional titles and a growing resume of post season disappointment yet regardless of those repeated failures pundits everywhere are still inexplicably in love with them. They even have a big mouth moron executive driving the bus, just like Steinbrenner. Overall it's a much more apt comparison. Come on Sports Guy, you can do better than that 2000 words of obvious drivel.
Now that we have that established, on to the game itself.
I suppose I should throw in a passing word about the NFC Championship game, as the winner of the much over-hyped Patriots v. Colts matchup will have to face someone in the Super Bowl, although I hardly think it matters as the NFC is clearly the junior varsity division.
I would love to see the Saints win for a few reasons. First, I just don't like the Bears. I don't know if it's lingering animosity from the '86 Super Bowl, or the fact that I've never thought they were very good, or the Rex Grossman factor. Whatever it is I really don't care for them. Also, how can you root against the Saints? They play an exremely fun style of football, at least from a spectator's standpoint. They have the premier rookie in the league, the best quarterback in the NFC, the coach of the year, and they are the feel good sports story of the year by a wide margin.
That being said I don't know if I can pick them. The thing that scares me the most is the fact that it's going to be 25 degrees and windy in Chicago tomorrow and I'm worried about the impact that may have on the Saint's finesse offense. As good as they are in the passing game and on special teams they are pretty soft in the power running game and on defense which are the aspects of playoff football which usually rise to the top, especially in lousy conditions.
I hope that I'm wrong on this one but I see the Bears sneaking away with a low scoring victory and then getting absolutely killed in the Super Bowl. Should the Saints pull the upset (moderate) I think they have a much better chance than the Bears against either the Patriots or the Colts.
But really, for all intents and purposes the nightcap tomorrow is the Super Bowl. I know that's been said erroneously before, but do you really see either the Colts or Pats losing once they get past this game? Me neither.
So what's it going to come down to?
Obviously for the Patriots to win they need to get a heroic effort from their defense. Manning hasn't played well so far in the playoffs but hoping for three bad games in a row may be a bit of a long shot. New England must get to him early and often with big time physical pressure. They positively cannot let him get comfortable in the pocket and see down the field. It will be up to Richard Seymour and Ty Warren to come off the ends and bother his rhythm from the outset. If they can get into his head early we all know that he will start waving his arms and passing the blame for every incompletition by the middle of the second quarter. Everyone on the Pats D-line should watch the tape of the Steelers performance agains the Colts last year in the divisional round before they take the field.
In the secondary Hawkins and Hobbs need to play their best games of the season in order to slow down Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne. Hawkins, who will be matched up on Harrison may actually have the easier assignment here, as through the first two playoff games Manning has looked more to Wayne's side of the field (mostly because Harrison has been guarded by their opponents best cover corner) than he normally does. That will put the emphasis squarely on the shoulders of Ellis Hobbs. He needs to cover the short to medium range routes aggressively and rely on safety help if he gets caught biting on a move or a Manning pump fake. He can't afford to sit back and allow Wayne to move freely in the five to fifteen yard areas because that will allow for quick releases which would negate much of the Patriot pass rush.
A somewhat underappreciated aspect of this Colt offense is Joseph Addai. While he still technically shares carries with Dominic Rhodes the last few weeks of the regular season and the first two playoff games have been his coming out party so to speak. He has excellent burst up the middle, he gets to the edge fairly well, and he has shown recently that he can break a tackle or two, especially when defenders come at him high or with arm tackles. Just as importantly he is solid in the short passing game, to which Manning has been looking more this year than ever before.
While the Colts always had a reasonably successful running game with Edgerrin James in the past they were ususally unwilling to utilize it to it's fullest extent. That has not been the case so far this post-season as they have been allowing Addai and Rhodes to carry the offensive load as long as they are successful doing so ( see the second half against the Ravens). The Patriots need to be aware of the run more than in previous years because of this increased commitment to it.
Offensively New England cannot be fooled or intimidated by the allegdly new and improved Indianapolis defense. Success against the Ravens and Chiefs (not coincidentally against McNair and Green) does not a great defense make. Their run stopping ability is still questionable at best and unlike in the regular season the Patriots need to commit to using Maroney and Dillon for the entire game. They will find success against the Colts' front seven, and when they do Bob Sanders will have to come up from his safety position to help. When that happens this time the Patriots must take advantage by using play action to free up receivers down the field. In the regular season matchup New England gave up on the run entirely when Sanders started creeping up and they failed to use play action at all, they must learn from those mistakes if they want to win this game.
Obviously Tom Brady must play well for the Patriots to have a chance. He cannot repeat his performance from last week, nor can anyone else turn the ball over. Giving the Colts extra chances is always costly, especially if their offense starts clicking. Brady needs to manage the game and maybe more importantly the clock. Let's face it, the Patriots can't stop Indy for 60 minutes, at some point they're going to get rolling. The less they have the ball the fewer chances they have to score (duh) and a lot of that responsibility falls to number 12.
A quick start is imperitive for New England for several reasons. First, they need to take the RCA Dome crowd out of the game early. They mimick their quarterback's personality, meaning when things go bad from the start they tend to give up and quiet down. Brady plays well in domes but no one plays well when they can't hear anything. Second, the Patriots don't have the kind of offense that can generate big comebacks. Their passing game is predicated on at least marginal success in the running game, and their lack of a big downfield threat limits their ability to win shootout type contests. If the Colts get up early it could mean big trouble for the Pats, especially if Dwight Freeney and the rest of the Indy defense can forget about the run and just concentrate on Brady.
To be honest, I don't know what's going to happen tomorrow. I do think that it won't take much for Manning to start thinking about the ghosts again, but I wonder if the Patriots have the manpower to get him moving in that direction again. Either way, I see a close game, and that both encourages and scares the crap out of me. I'm encouraged because nobody is better in the clutch than Brady and Bellichick, and on that same token no one has been worse than Dungy and Manning. However, should the game remain close to the very end there is a certain number 4 waiting in the wings, but now he's on the other sideline. Adam Vinatieri is my worst nightmare in this game, if we see him trotting out with under a minute to play with a chance to win the game, even if it's from 60 yards out I think it's going in. He's be best clutch kicker ever (as we know) and I'm sure nothing would give him more pleasure than bouncing his former mates into the off season.
At this point I just want the damn game to get here already. Enough of the predictions and analysis, everything has been said. Just like last week I'm not making any predictions (worked well last time, why change?) but I will speculate that we are on the eve of one of the great games in NFL playoff history. Whatever way it goes, it will surely be an entertaining spectacle.
God help us all if we have to listen to two weeks of Manning ball washing should the Colts advance. I won't turn on a damn TV I swear it.
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