The Second Half

It’s time to get serious. The All-Star game has passed, home field advantage for the World Series is ensured. Now, the Red Sox have to find a way to get there.

After last night’s 15-3 drubbing by the very light hitting Oakland A’s, the Sox now find themselves in the midst of a 3 game tail spin and their lead in the AL East is down to just two games over the Yankees. Remember how the Yankees were dead yesterday? Right.

Josh Beckett suffered another miserable outing and continues to struggle against teams with winning records. Consider this: Josh Beckett is now 11-5, Tim Wakefield is 8-9 but Wakefield’s ERA is almost half a run lower than Beckett’s. He hasn’t been pitching that well he’s just been lucky in terms of run support.

The team as a whole has been following Beckett’s lead by struggling against the top clubs in the AL.

So what needs to be done for the Red Sox to survive the next 75 games and advance deep into the playoffs? Here are 10 things that would be a good start.

Josh Beckett:
He was brought here to be a number one or one-A next to Schilling. So far, despite his deceiving 11 wins he has been at best a two or a three. Beckett is on pace to break the record for home runs allowed in a season and his performance varies wildly based on the opponent. His performance will go a long way to determining the success of the Red Sox. If he can get away from relying solely on his straight fastball (which has been leaving the building at an alarming rate) and can master control of his curve and slider he can be dominating. If not, it could be a long road for Beckett and the Sox.

Curt Schilling:
With Beckett struggling Schilling has been the lynchpin of the rotation and that needs to continue. He could be well served to control the homerun ball a bit himself but as long as he maintains his health and his performance from the first half I will be satisfied. He is their bona fide ace and for the Red Sox to succeed he needs to continue to pitch like it.

Coco Crisp:
So far he has not been Johnny Damon. He needs to be in the second half. Perhaps the expectations placed on Coco to begin the season were a little too high. That being said since coming off of the DL he has done nothing but disappoint offensively. His bat and his legs need to come around and in a hurry. On defense he’s been spectacular (his diving catch in center field was one of the best ever) now he just needs to sort out his offense.

John Lester:
He’s going to lose some games. It’s a simple fact that a rookie pitching in big situations in the midst of a pressure packed playoff race is at some point going to make a mistake that is going to cost him team a game. I can live with that. He needs to minimize those mistakes and continue to pitch the way he has to this point. I don’t mean that he needs to stay undefeated (although that would be nice) he just needs to give the team a chance to win every time out. So far he has been all we could ask for and more, but with the lack of depth in the rotation right now we need to ask for even more.

The 5th Starter:
That mystery man who eludes us so. Whether it is Matt Clement, David Pauley, Kyle Snyder, or someone acquired at the trading deadline that position needs to be solidified. A team cannot survive the entire second half trying to patch over a spot in the rotation every fifth day. Someone needs to step up and pitch better than .500 the rest of the way and provide this team with a viable option that will keep their bullpen in better shape the rest of the way.

Kevin Youkilis:
To this point he has finally lived up to the hype we’ve been hearing for four years. Now we’ll see if he can do it when it counts. His average has been dropping of late, down to .292 and since this is his first full 162 game season with the major league club we should probably start to worry about him hitting the “rookie” wall. His OBP will always be there, as will his defense; they just can’t afford to lose his pop at the beginning of the order. He like Schilling, needs to maintain his performance for the Red Sox to have a chance.

Jonathan Papelbon:
What can you say so far? He’s been the best pitcher in baseball over the first 90 games. If the season ended today he would win the Rookie of the Year and would get serious consideration in both the MVP and Cy Young voting. Still, we’re talking about a true rookie here, someone who was basically pitching on cock-n’-balls last season and who has never faced the grind of July and August in a pennant race. I don’t think we have much to worry about here, but a drop off by Papelbon would be disastrous and would effectively end the season.

The Yankees:
In baseball you need some help. For example the White Sox have been playing some of the best baseball in the Major Leagues but they just aren’t getting any help for the Tigers who simply refuse to lose games. The Red Sox weren’t helping the Yankees at all during their 12 game win streak, but at the end of that they were only up three games. In order for them to win the division they need the Yankees not to reel off ten in a row at some point this season (like they usually do) and it wouldn’t hurt if Gary Sheffield and Hideki Matsui missed the rest of the year either. Basically they need the Yankees to be what they have been in the first half, and that is a mediocre team playing over their heads with bench players.

Terry Francona:
He needs to keep this ship together. He’s always been able to do it in the past and there is no reason to think that he won’t be able to this year, but it’s absolutely essential. Francona needs to keep Manny in the lineup everyday and happy, he needs to find a fix for Josh Beckett, he needs to figure out the fifth starter situation, he must decide on their best lineup(s), and he needs to manage the bullpen without ever using the words, “Get Seanez up.” In baseball little managerial decisions go a long way, Tito needs to make the right ones.

Injuries:
Maybe this should have been number one. Everyone needs to stay healthy. Look at the Yankees, they are still close in the rear view mirror and they have already suffered their catastrophic losses for the season. Were someone on the Red Sox to go down that view could reverse itself in an instant. The most essential guys that need to stay healthy: Schilling (so far so good), Beckett, Papelbon, Ortiz, Ramirez, Timlin, Varitek, Loretta, Youkilis, and Coco. If any of those guys go down it could be lights out for this year’s club.

So there you have it, ten things the Red Sox need in order to take the division. I still think they are the slight favorite heading into the second half given the age of the Yankees, the inexperience of the Blue Jays and the quality of their roster. I didn’t mention Manny or Ortiz’s offense performance on this list because it’s so obvious that they need that production from day one that it is hardly ground breaking news. Clearly if either of those guys drop off the Sox are in really big trouble.

Whoa, two posts in just over two weeks. Look at me go!