Of the 28 NFL teams who are out on the golf course this week (i.e. no longer in contention for the Lombardi trophy), who do you think stands the greatest chance of making it into the championship game next year?
This is a great question, definitely one of your best.
It's also very difficult to answer.
I think you have to look at this two ways, or in the form of two questions. What teams are currently good enough but underachieved this year for whatever reason (injuries etc.)? And what teams are on the rise and weren't ready in 2011-12 but might be with a piece or two added next year?
The answer to the first I think is pretty straightforward, it has to be the Eagles. The thing with Philadelphia this year was they were plagued by a "Redskins" syndrome, meaning they were great on the edges and in the backfield but terrible up front. If anything can be taken from this Eagles' season it's that you build a football team from the ball out so to speak (i.e. linemen first, quarterback, running back, and so on).
That being said it's fixable for Philadelphia if they make a few tweaks here and there. Nobody in the NFC, with their season on the line wanted to play them down the stretch this year and they still have three of the best skill position guys in football with Vick, Asomugh, and McCoy. Additionally, they were smart enough to keep Reid, who may have deserved to get fired but who is also very difficult to replace and is unlikely to post two dog-seasons in a row.
Beyond the Eagles I think you have to look at Houston as a team that was absolutely ravaged by injuries and still nearly won two playoff games. T.J. Yates certainly won't be their starter next year and their already vicious defense will be adding their best player, Mario Williams back into the mix. Throw in a really soft division (even if Manny comes back) and they could be in line to win a lot of games next year. Pittsburgh is essentially the same way, if everyone comes back healthy they should be just as good if not better.
The other question is a little trickier. There are teams that are poised to make huge improvements next year, like Carolina with a second-year Newton, Oakland with either a healthy Jason Campbell or Carson Palmer with a year outside of Bengal-jail, or the Dolphins who were a tough out late in the season especially on defense. But will any of those teams improve enough to get all the way to a Championship game? Playoffs maybe but a conference title game seems like a stretch.
So that leaves us with the teams that are totally deficient on one side of the ball: Green Bay and New Orleans. Teams that are started strong then didn't know what to do with their success: Detroit and Buffalo. And teams that were loaded with talent but for some reason couldn't get it together: San Diego and (maybe) Arizona, and (maybe-ish) the Jets.
I think we can safely assume that New Orleans and Green Bay are going to be good again but that neither is going to undergo the defensive makeover they would need to change the look of their team substantially. Last year the Packers defense lived and died with turnovers, this year they didn't get any and that's why they'll be watching this weekend from the couch. New Orleans can score enough to cover a lot of their problems and are guaranteed nine games a year in a dome (eight at home, one at Atlanta) but they have to play 7 on the road and just can't stop anybody. Either is still a good bet to win their division but if New Orleans doesn't have home field and Green Bay doesn't get some guys who can tackle it might be one and done for them again.
Detroit and Buffalo both scream set-back year to me. Matt Stafford threw for over 5,000 yards this year. He's a good quarterback but he's not a 5,000 yard quarterback. If they don't sort out some kind of running game it could be back to the same old in Mo-Town. Buffalo paid a kid from Harvard over $60 million... I don't think I need to say more than that, and even at their best they're the third best team in their own division.
San Diego jumps off the page here as the obvious team to pick, especially given the way they ended the season. Lots of talent at receiver, good quarterback, two solid running backs, coolest city in the world... But that's the problem, we have this conversation about San Diego every year. They never put it all together and why should we believe that they will next year? On paper they're the easy choice but there's just something missing there.
In New York I think that the wheels have fallen a little too far off of the wagon for things to come together in one off-season. How much confidence is Sanchez going to have coming into camp next year? How much buy-in will Rex get from his players if he starts running his mouth again? Will 6 months be enough time for everyone to forget about the huge target they've put on their own backs for the last three years? Will they continue to sign every thug and idiot on the free agent market? Those questions are too daunting for me to pick them for a huge turnaround next year. Not to mention they still have the Patriots and a possibly resurgent Dolphins in their division.
So by process of elimination my flyer for next season's NFC Championship game is the Arizona Cardinals. Now there's a big IF here and that's the quarterback situation. Skelton was the NFC's Tim Tebow without the douchey beanie during press conferences and the constant Bible-thumping. But they also have Kevin Kolb who should be healthy.
(Side note, is Kolb just the unluckiest guy in the league or what? Every time he gets hurt his backup plays like an all-pro and he ends up either getting bounced or in a quarterback controversy. This will be the second team that's given him a huge contract only to end up unsure about whether he'll start his second season).
Anyway, if they get that sorted out (I vote Skelton by the way) then I think they have a chance to be really good. That division still doesn't scare me (sorry, I know the '49ers look good now but check out what happened to the '02-'03 Patriots after their first good season in a decade) and they have weapons on both sides of the ball. It's a long shot but hey, that's the point right?
In the AFC I'm actually going to go all the way back to the top and take another even longer shot. If I have to pick one of those teams I'm going with the Raiders. Now again, they have QB issues since they traded the farm for Carson Palmer in a typical "win now" hysteria. However, if they make the right choice and play Campbell they are pretty much ready to win now. Bush and McFadden are a ridiculous 1-2 punch in the backfield, their defense is solid (although they struggle against the pass) and they beat some good teams in '11-'12. Again, a long shot...
So Eagles v. Cardinals and Steelers v. Raiders this week next year? Here's hoping I'm wrong.
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